La Liga·Regular Season - 8·
La Liga·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
24%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.222.95safe0.76–2.700.37–2.071.13–4.78safer0.51–2.950.14–2.300.65–5.26
Shots on target
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.543.919.45safe3.68–7.402.16–5.655.84–13.05safer3.19–7.891.70–6.114.89–14.01
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2711.5927.86safe12.34–20.198.03–15.1520.37–35.35safer11.25–21.287.07–16.1118.32–37.40
Shots in box
66%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction10.017.7417.75safe7.06–12.955.06–10.4212.13–23.37safer6.24–13.784.33–11.1610.56–24.94
Blocked shots
58%
14%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.293.227.50safe2.40–6.171.57–4.873.97–11.04safer1.86–6.711.07–5.362.93–12.08
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.884.049.92safe3.67–8.102.04–6.045.71–14.14safer3.10–8.671.51–6.574.60–15.24
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction51.4249.20safe44.63–58.2142.42–55.99safer42.96–59.8840.74–57.66
Passes
71%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction517451968safe449–584385–517834–1101safer431–602367–535798–1137
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction65.9472.03safe61.91–69.9767.71–76.36safer60.61–71.2666.40–77.67
Fouls
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6810.8321.52safe7.85–13.527.89–13.7815.74–27.30safer7.09–14.287.14–14.5314.23–28.80
Offsides
35%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.823.46safe0.48–2.800.72–2.911.21–5.71safer0.18–3.100.43–3.200.62–6.30
Yellow cards
31%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.983.53safe0.51–2.600.85–3.111.36–5.71safer0.24–2.870.56–3.400.80–6.27
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80
GK saves
23%
14%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.493.836.32safe1.06–3.932.27–5.393.33–9.31safer0.67–4.321.85–5.812.52–10.13
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.76–2.70 0.51–2.95 | 1.22 0.37–2.07 0.14–2.30 | 2.95 1.13–4.78 0.65–5.26 | 49% 24% 27% |
| Shots on target | 5.54 3.68–7.40 3.19–7.89 | 3.91 2.16–5.65 1.70–6.11 | 9.45 5.84–13.05 4.89–14.01 | 64% 24% |
| Total shots | 16.27 12.34–20.19 11.25–21.28 | 11.59 8.03–15.15 7.07–16.11 | 27.86 20.37–35.35 18.32–37.40 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 10.01 7.06–12.95 6.24–13.78 | 7.74 5.06–10.42 4.33–11.16 | 17.75 12.13–23.37 10.56–24.94 | 66% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.29 2.40–6.17 1.86–6.71 | 3.22 1.57–4.87 1.07–5.36 | 7.50 3.97–11.04 2.93–12.08 | 58% 14% 28% |
| Corners | 5.88 3.67–8.10 3.10–8.67 | 4.04 2.04–6.04 1.51–6.57 | 9.92 5.71–14.14 4.60–15.24 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 51.42 44.63–58.21 42.96–59.88 | 49.20 42.42–55.99 40.74–57.66 | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 517 449–584 431–602 | 451 385–517 367–535 | 968 834–1101 798–1137 | 71% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.94 61.91–69.97 60.61–71.26 | 72.03 67.71–76.36 66.40–77.67 | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 10.68 7.85–13.52 7.09–14.28 | 10.83 7.89–13.78 7.14–14.53 | 21.52 15.74–27.30 14.23–28.80 | 44% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.48–2.80 0.18–3.10 | 1.82 0.72–2.91 0.43–3.20 | 3.46 1.21–5.71 0.62–6.30 | 35% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.51–2.60 0.24–2.87 | 1.98 0.85–3.11 0.56–3.40 | 3.53 1.36–5.71 0.80–6.27 | 31% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.49 1.06–3.93 0.67–4.32 | 3.83 2.27–5.39 1.85–5.81 | 6.32 3.33–9.31 2.52–10.13 | 23% 14% 63% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.