La Liga·Regular Season - 9·
La Liga·Regular Season - 9·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
27%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.360.982.34safe0.39–2.320.13–1.840.52–4.16safer0.14–2.570.00–2.070.04–4.64
Shots on target
61%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.643.327.95safe2.77–6.501.58–5.064.35–11.56safer2.28–6.991.11–5.533.39–12.51
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6510.4624.11safe9.72–17.576.90–14.0316.62–31.60safer8.63–18.675.94–14.9814.57–33.65
Shots in box
62%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction8.366.7015.07safe5.42–11.304.02–9.389.44–20.69safer4.59–12.133.28–10.127.88–22.26
Blocked shots
58%
15%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.852.796.63safe1.96–5.731.13–4.443.10–10.17safer1.42–6.270.64–4.932.06–11.20
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.483.739.20safe3.26–7.691.73–5.734.99–13.42safer2.69–8.261.19–6.263.88–14.52
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction60.2939.87safe53.50–67.0833.08–46.65safer51.83–68.7531.41–48.32
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction560346906safe492–627280–412772–1039safer474–645262–430736–1075
Pass accuracy %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction71.2966.53safe67.26–75.3162.20–70.85safer65.96–76.6160.89–72.16
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0813.2525.34safe9.25–14.9210.31–16.2019.56–31.12safer8.49–15.689.56–16.9518.05–32.62
Offsides
55%
20%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.271.513.78safe1.11–3.430.42–2.601.52–6.03safer0.80–3.730.13–2.890.93–6.62
Yellow cards
30%
18%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.012.614.63safe0.96–3.061.48–3.742.45–6.80safer0.70–3.331.19–4.031.89–7.36
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.120.23safe0.00–0.260.00–0.310.00–0.57safer0.00–0.410.00–0.440.00–0.86
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.503.235.73safe1.06–3.931.68–4.792.74–8.73safer0.68–4.321.25–5.211.93–9.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.39–2.32 0.14–2.57 | 0.98 0.13–1.84 0.00–2.07 | 2.34 0.52–4.16 0.04–4.64 | 45% 27% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.64 2.77–6.50 2.28–6.99 | 3.32 1.58–5.06 1.11–5.53 | 7.95 4.35–11.56 3.39–12.51 | 61% 26% |
| Total shots | 13.65 9.72–17.57 8.63–18.67 | 10.46 6.90–14.03 5.94–14.98 | 24.11 16.62–31.60 14.57–33.65 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 8.36 5.42–11.30 4.59–12.13 | 6.70 4.02–9.38 3.28–10.12 | 15.07 9.44–20.69 7.88–22.26 | 62% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 3.85 1.96–5.73 1.42–6.27 | 2.79 1.13–4.44 0.64–4.93 | 6.63 3.10–10.17 2.06–11.20 | 58% 15% 27% |
| Corners | 5.48 3.26–7.69 2.69–8.26 | 3.73 1.73–5.73 1.19–6.26 | 9.20 4.99–13.42 3.88–14.52 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 60.29 53.50–67.08 51.83–68.75 | 39.87 33.08–46.65 31.41–48.32 | — | 87% |
| Passes | 560 492–627 474–645 | 346 280–412 262–430 | 906 772–1039 736–1075 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.29 67.26–75.31 65.96–76.61 | 66.53 62.20–70.85 60.89–72.16 | — | 71% 25% |
| Fouls | 12.08 9.25–14.92 8.49–15.68 | 13.25 10.31–16.20 9.56–16.95 | 25.34 19.56–31.12 18.05–32.62 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 2.27 1.11–3.43 0.80–3.73 | 1.51 0.42–2.60 0.13–2.89 | 3.78 1.52–6.03 0.93–6.62 | 55% 20% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 2.01 0.96–3.06 0.70–3.33 | 2.61 1.48–3.74 1.19–4.03 | 4.63 2.45–6.80 1.89–7.36 | 30% 18% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.23 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.50 1.06–3.93 0.68–4.32 | 3.23 1.68–4.79 1.25–5.21 | 5.73 2.74–8.73 1.93–9.54 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.