La Liga·Regular Season - 23·
La Liga·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
28%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.041.282.32safe0.07–2.010.42–2.130.49–4.14safer0.00–2.260.19–2.360.01–4.62
Shots on target
34%
14%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.804.478.27safe1.94–5.662.72–6.214.66–11.87safer1.45–6.152.26–6.673.71–12.83
Total shots
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0611.1324.19safe9.14–16.997.57–14.6916.71–31.68safer8.05–18.086.61–15.6514.65–33.73
Shots in box
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction7.857.4715.32safe4.91–10.794.79–10.159.70–20.95safer4.08–11.624.05–10.898.13–22.51
Blocked shots
46%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.303.056.35safe1.41–5.181.40–4.712.81–9.88safer0.87–5.720.91–5.201.78–10.92
Corners
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.674.248.90safe2.45–6.882.24–6.244.69–13.12safer1.88–7.451.70–6.773.58–14.22
Possession %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction43.6857.59safe36.89–50.4750.80–64.37safer35.22–52.1449.13–66.04
Passes
17%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction370482852safe303–437415–548718–985safer285–455398–566682–1021
Pass accuracy %
16%
80%
homeawayprediction65.0872.17safe61.05–69.1167.84–76.49safer59.76–70.4066.53–77.80
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1613.1226.28safe10.32–16.0010.18–16.0720.50–32.06safer9.56–16.759.43–16.8218.99–33.57
Offsides
26%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.592.343.93safe0.43–2.751.25–3.441.68–6.19safer0.13–3.050.96–3.721.09–6.78
Yellow cards
42%
19%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.362.284.63safe1.31–3.411.15–3.412.46–6.81safer1.04–3.670.86–3.701.90–7.37
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.792.775.55safe1.35–4.221.21–4.322.56–8.55safer0.96–4.610.79–4.751.75–9.36
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.04 0.07–2.01 0.00–2.26 | 1.28 0.42–2.13 0.19–2.36 | 2.32 0.49–4.14 0.01–4.62 | 30% 28% 42% |
| Shots on target | 3.80 1.94–5.66 1.45–6.15 | 4.47 2.72–6.21 2.26–6.67 | 8.27 4.66–11.87 3.71–12.83 | 34% 14% 52% |
| Total shots | 13.06 9.14–16.99 8.05–18.08 | 11.13 7.57–14.69 6.61–15.65 | 24.19 16.71–31.68 14.65–33.73 | 61% 31% |
| Shots in box | 7.85 4.91–10.79 4.08–11.62 | 7.47 4.79–10.15 4.05–10.89 | 15.32 9.70–20.95 8.13–22.51 | 49% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.30 1.41–5.18 0.87–5.72 | 3.05 1.40–4.71 0.91–5.20 | 6.35 2.81–9.88 1.78–10.92 | 46% 16% 38% |
| Corners | 4.67 2.45–6.88 1.88–7.45 | 4.24 2.24–6.24 1.70–6.77 | 8.90 4.69–13.12 3.58–14.22 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Possession % | 43.68 36.89–50.47 35.22–52.14 | 57.59 50.80–64.37 49.13–66.04 | — | 19% 78% |
| Passes | 370 303–437 285–455 | 482 415–548 398–566 | 852 718–985 682–1021 | 17% 82% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.08 61.05–69.11 59.76–70.40 | 72.17 67.84–76.49 66.53–77.80 | — | 16% 80% |
| Fouls | 13.16 10.32–16.00 9.56–16.75 | 13.12 10.18–16.07 9.43–16.82 | 26.28 20.50–32.06 18.99–33.57 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.43–2.75 0.13–3.05 | 2.34 1.25–3.44 0.96–3.72 | 3.93 1.68–6.19 1.09–6.78 | 26% 20% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 2.36 1.31–3.41 1.04–3.67 | 2.28 1.15–3.41 0.86–3.70 | 4.63 2.46–6.81 1.90–7.37 | 42% 19% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.35–4.22 0.96–4.61 | 2.77 1.21–4.32 0.79–4.75 | 5.55 2.56–8.55 1.75–9.36 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+