La Liga·Regular Season - 9·
La Liga·Regular Season - 9·Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
25%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.142.74safe0.63–2.570.28–1.990.91–4.56safer0.38–2.820.06–2.220.43–5.04
Shots on target
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.763.728.48safe2.90–6.631.98–5.464.88–12.09safer2.41–7.121.51–5.933.92–13.04
Total shots
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4510.7424.19safe9.52–17.377.18–14.3116.70–31.68safer8.43–18.466.22–15.2714.65–33.73
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction8.936.9015.84safe5.99–11.874.22–9.5810.21–21.46safer5.16–12.703.48–10.328.65–23.03
Blocked shots
56%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.582.666.24safe1.70–5.471.01–4.312.71–9.78safer1.16–6.010.52–4.811.67–10.82
Corners
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.914.169.07safe2.69–7.122.16–6.164.85–13.28safer2.12–7.691.62–6.693.74–14.39
Possession %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction48.0652.72safe41.27–54.8545.94–59.51safer39.60–56.5244.27–61.18
Passes
30%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction411472883safe344–478405–538749–1016safer325–496388–556713–1052
Pass accuracy %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction66.7972.56safe62.77–70.8268.23–76.88safer61.47–72.1266.92–78.19
Fouls
55%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4813.3527.83safe11.64–17.3110.41–16.3022.04–33.61safer10.88–18.079.66–17.0420.54–35.11
Offsides
62%
18%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction2.591.454.04safe1.43–3.750.35–2.541.78–6.29safer1.13–4.050.07–2.831.19–6.88
Yellow cards
38%
19%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.302.464.76safe1.25–3.351.33–3.592.58–6.94safer0.98–3.621.04–3.882.03–7.50
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
33%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.583.095.67safe1.15–4.021.54–4.652.68–8.67safer0.76–4.411.11–5.071.87–9.48
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 0.63–2.57 0.38–2.82 | 1.14 0.28–1.99 0.06–2.22 | 2.74 0.91–4.56 0.43–5.04 | 48% 25% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.76 2.90–6.63 2.41–7.12 | 3.72 1.98–5.46 1.51–5.93 | 8.48 4.88–12.09 3.92–13.04 | 57% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 13.45 9.52–17.37 8.43–18.46 | 10.74 7.18–14.31 6.22–15.27 | 24.19 16.70–31.68 14.65–33.73 | 67% 26% |
| Shots in box | 8.93 5.99–11.87 5.16–12.70 | 6.90 4.22–9.58 3.48–10.32 | 15.84 10.21–21.46 8.65–23.03 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 3.58 1.70–5.47 1.16–6.01 | 2.66 1.01–4.31 0.52–4.81 | 6.24 2.71–9.78 1.67–10.82 | 56% 15% 28% |
| Corners | 4.91 2.69–7.12 2.12–7.69 | 4.16 2.16–6.16 1.62–6.69 | 9.07 4.85–13.28 3.74–14.39 | 53% 13% 34% |
| Possession % | 48.06 41.27–54.85 39.60–56.52 | 52.72 45.94–59.51 44.27–61.18 | — | 37% 59% |
| Passes | 411 344–478 325–496 | 472 405–538 388–556 | 883 749–1016 713–1052 | 30% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.79 62.77–70.82 61.47–72.12 | 72.56 68.23–76.88 66.92–78.19 | — | 21% 75% |
| Fouls | 14.48 11.64–17.31 10.88–18.07 | 13.35 10.41–16.30 9.66–17.04 | 27.83 22.04–33.61 20.54–35.11 | 55% 38% |
| Offsides | 2.59 1.43–3.75 1.13–4.05 | 1.45 0.35–2.54 0.07–2.83 | 4.04 1.78–6.29 1.19–6.88 | 62% 18% 20% |
| Yellow cards | 2.30 1.25–3.35 0.98–3.62 | 2.46 1.33–3.59 1.04–3.88 | 4.76 2.58–6.94 2.03–7.50 | 38% 19% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.15–4.02 0.76–4.41 | 3.09 1.54–4.65 1.11–5.07 | 5.67 2.68–8.67 1.87–9.48 | 33% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.