La Liga·Regular Season - 9·
La Liga·Regular Season - 9·Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
22%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction0.991.952.94safe0.02–1.951.10–2.811.11–4.76safer0.00–2.210.87–3.030.64–5.24
Shots on target
20%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction3.475.508.97safe1.61–5.333.75–7.245.36–12.57safer1.12–5.823.29–7.714.41–13.53
Total shots
16%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9415.4426.37safe7.01–14.8611.87–19.0018.89–33.86safer5.92–15.9510.91–19.9616.84–35.91
Shots in box
14%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction6.3910.2316.62safe3.44–9.337.55–12.9110.99–22.24safer2.61–10.166.81–13.659.43–23.81
Blocked shots
20%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction3.024.907.91safe1.13–4.903.24–6.554.38–11.45safer0.59–5.442.75–7.043.34–12.48
Corners
30%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.445.549.98safe2.22–6.653.54–7.545.76–14.19safer1.65–7.233.01–8.074.66–15.30
Possession %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction43.1757.51safe36.38–49.9650.73–64.30safer34.71–51.6349.06–65.97
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction407531939safe340–474465–598805–1072safer322–493447–615769–1108
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction64.8776.41safe60.84–68.9072.09–80.73safer59.55–70.1970.78–82.04
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7611.3622.12safe7.93–13.608.41–14.3016.34–27.90safer7.17–14.367.67–15.0514.83–29.41
Offsides
53%
18%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.782.114.89safe1.62–3.941.02–3.202.64–7.15safer1.32–4.250.73–3.492.05–7.74
Yellow cards
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.833.70safe0.82–2.920.70–2.961.53–5.88safer0.56–3.190.41–3.250.97–6.44
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.79
GK saves
58%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.542.516.04safe2.10–4.970.95–4.063.05–9.04safer1.71–5.360.53–4.492.24–9.85
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.02–1.95 0.00–2.21 | 1.95 1.10–2.81 0.87–3.03 | 2.94 1.11–4.76 0.64–5.24 | 19% 22% 60% |
| Shots on target | 3.47 1.61–5.33 1.12–5.82 | 5.50 3.75–7.24 3.29–7.71 | 8.97 5.36–12.57 4.41–13.53 | 20% 69% |
| Total shots | 10.94 7.01–14.86 5.92–15.95 | 15.44 11.87–19.00 10.91–19.96 | 26.37 18.89–33.86 16.84–35.91 | 16% 78% |
| Shots in box | 6.39 3.44–9.33 2.61–10.16 | 10.23 7.55–12.91 6.81–13.65 | 16.62 10.99–22.24 9.43–23.81 | 14% 80% |
| Blocked shots | 3.02 1.13–4.90 0.59–5.44 | 4.90 3.24–6.55 2.75–7.04 | 7.91 4.38–11.45 3.34–12.48 | 20% 69% |
| Corners | 4.44 2.22–6.65 1.65–7.23 | 5.54 3.54–7.54 3.01–8.07 | 9.98 5.76–14.19 4.66–15.30 | 30% 57% |
| Possession % | 43.17 36.38–49.96 34.71–51.63 | 57.51 50.73–64.30 49.06–65.97 | — | 18% 78% |
| Passes | 407 340–474 322–493 | 531 465–598 447–615 | 939 805–1072 769–1108 | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.87 60.84–68.90 59.55–70.19 | 76.41 72.09–80.73 70.78–82.04 | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 10.76 7.93–13.60 7.17–14.36 | 11.36 8.41–14.30 7.67–15.05 | 22.12 16.34–27.90 14.83–29.41 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 2.78 1.62–3.94 1.32–4.25 | 2.11 1.02–3.20 0.73–3.49 | 4.89 2.64–7.15 2.05–7.74 | 53% 18% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 0.82–2.92 0.56–3.19 | 1.83 0.70–2.96 0.41–3.25 | 3.70 1.53–5.88 0.97–6.44 | 40% 22% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.54 2.10–4.97 1.71–5.36 | 2.51 0.95–4.06 0.53–4.49 | 6.04 3.05–9.04 2.24–9.85 | 58% 15% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+