La Liga·Regular Season - 11·
La Liga·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
53%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.102.86safe0.79–2.730.25–1.961.04–4.69safer0.54–2.980.02–2.190.56–5.17
Shots on target
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.663.849.49safe3.79–7.522.09–5.585.89–13.10safer3.30–8.011.63–6.044.93–14.05
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction16.5110.8627.38safe12.59–20.447.30–14.4319.89–34.86safer11.50–21.536.34–15.3917.84–36.92
Shots in box
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction10.356.6817.03safe7.41–13.294.00–9.3611.41–22.65safer6.58–14.123.26–10.109.84–24.22
Blocked shots
66%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.502.877.37safe2.62–6.391.22–4.523.84–10.91safer2.08–6.930.73–5.022.80–11.95
Corners
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.713.9810.69safe4.49–8.921.98–5.986.47–14.90safer3.92–9.491.44–6.515.36–16.01
Possession %
74%
23%
homeawayprediction55.7044.00safe48.91–62.4937.22–50.79safer47.24–64.1635.55–52.46
Passes
87%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction523390914safe456–591324–457780–1047safer438–609306–474744–1083
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction70.2369.31safe66.20–74.2664.99–73.63safer64.90–75.5563.68–74.94
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5011.8022.30safe7.66–13.348.86–14.7516.52–28.08safer6.90–14.098.11–15.5015.01–29.59
Offsides
22%
16%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.833.014.84safe0.67–2.991.92–4.102.59–7.09safer0.37–3.291.63–4.392.00–7.68
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.762.003.76safe0.71–2.810.87–3.131.58–5.94safer0.44–3.080.58–3.421.02–6.50
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.753.776.52safe1.32–4.192.21–5.333.53–9.51safer0.93–4.581.79–5.752.72–10.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 0.79–2.73 0.54–2.98 | 1.10 0.25–1.96 0.02–2.19 | 2.86 1.04–4.69 0.56–5.17 | 53% 23% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.66 3.79–7.52 3.30–8.01 | 3.84 2.09–5.58 1.63–6.04 | 9.49 5.89–13.10 4.93–14.05 | 67% 22% |
| Total shots | 16.51 12.59–20.44 11.50–21.53 | 10.86 7.30–14.43 6.34–15.39 | 27.38 19.89–34.86 17.84–36.92 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 10.35 7.41–13.29 6.58–14.12 | 6.68 4.00–9.36 3.26–10.10 | 17.03 11.41–22.65 9.84–24.22 | 78% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.50 2.62–6.39 2.08–6.93 | 2.87 1.22–4.52 0.73–5.02 | 7.37 3.84–10.91 2.80–11.95 | 66% 21% |
| Corners | 6.71 4.49–8.92 3.92–9.49 | 3.98 1.98–5.98 1.44–6.51 | 10.69 6.47–14.90 5.36–16.01 | 75% 16% |
| Possession % | 55.70 48.91–62.49 47.24–64.16 | 44.00 37.22–50.79 35.55–52.46 | — | 74% 23% |
| Passes | 523 456–591 438–609 | 390 324–457 306–474 | 914 780–1047 744–1083 | 87% 13% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.23 66.20–74.26 64.90–75.55 | 69.31 64.99–73.63 63.68–74.94 | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 10.50 7.66–13.34 6.90–14.09 | 11.80 8.86–14.75 8.11–15.50 | 22.30 16.52–28.08 15.01–29.59 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.29 | 3.01 1.92–4.10 1.63–4.39 | 4.84 2.59–7.09 2.00–7.68 | 22% 16% 62% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.81 0.44–3.08 | 2.00 0.87–3.13 0.58–3.42 | 3.76 1.58–5.94 1.02–6.50 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.75 1.32–4.19 0.93–4.58 | 3.77 2.21–5.33 1.79–5.75 | 6.52 3.53–9.51 2.72–10.33 | 27% 15% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+