La Liga·Regular Season - 11·
La Liga·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
27%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.420.892.31safe0.45–2.390.04–1.750.49–4.13safer0.20–2.640.00–1.980.01–4.61
Shots on target
65%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.653.047.69safe2.79–6.511.30–4.784.09–11.30safer2.30–7.000.83–5.253.13–12.25
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction14.408.8623.27safe10.48–18.335.30–12.4315.78–30.76safer9.39–19.424.34–13.3913.73–32.81
Shots in box
77%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction8.955.6414.58safe6.00–11.892.96–8.328.96–20.20safer5.17–12.722.22–9.057.39–21.77
Blocked shots
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.152.276.41safe2.26–6.030.61–3.922.88–9.95safer1.72–6.570.12–4.411.84–10.98
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.123.469.57safe3.90–8.331.46–5.465.36–13.79safer3.33–8.900.92–5.994.25–14.90
Possession %
84%
13%
homeawayprediction58.8240.82safe52.03–65.6134.04–47.61safer50.36–67.2832.37–49.28
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction541378919safe474–608311–444785–1053safer456–627294–462750–1088
Pass accuracy %
73%
22%
homeawayprediction73.3367.97safe69.30–77.3663.65–72.29safer68.01–78.6562.34–73.60
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1313.9127.04safe10.29–15.9710.97–16.8621.26–32.82safer9.53–16.7210.22–17.6119.76–34.33
Offsides
36%
24%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.563.03safe0.31–2.630.46–2.650.77–5.28safer0.01–2.930.18–2.940.19–5.87
Yellow cards
27%
19%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.594.43safe0.79–2.891.46–3.722.25–6.61safer0.53–3.161.17–4.011.70–7.17
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
26%
16%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.273.245.51safe0.84–3.711.68–4.792.52–8.50safer0.45–4.101.26–5.221.71–9.32
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.45–2.39 0.20–2.64 | 0.89 0.04–1.75 0.00–1.98 | 2.31 0.49–4.13 0.01–4.61 | 49% 27% 24% |
| Shots on target | 4.65 2.79–6.51 2.30–7.00 | 3.04 1.30–4.78 0.83–5.25 | 7.69 4.09–11.30 3.13–12.25 | 65% 22% |
| Total shots | 14.40 10.48–18.33 9.39–19.42 | 8.86 5.30–12.43 4.34–13.39 | 23.27 15.78–30.76 13.73–32.81 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 8.95 6.00–11.89 5.17–12.72 | 5.64 2.96–8.32 2.22–9.05 | 14.58 8.96–20.20 7.39–21.77 | 77% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 4.15 2.26–6.03 1.72–6.57 | 2.27 0.61–3.92 0.12–4.41 | 6.41 2.88–9.95 1.84–10.98 | 71% 17% |
| Corners | 6.12 3.90–8.33 3.33–8.90 | 3.46 1.46–5.46 0.92–5.99 | 9.57 5.36–13.79 4.25–14.90 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 58.82 52.03–65.61 50.36–67.28 | 40.82 34.04–47.61 32.37–49.28 | — | 84% 13% |
| Passes | 541 474–608 456–627 | 378 311–444 294–462 | 919 785–1053 750–1088 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.33 69.30–77.36 68.01–78.65 | 67.97 63.65–72.29 62.34–73.60 | — | 73% 22% |
| Fouls | 13.13 10.29–15.97 9.53–16.72 | 13.91 10.97–16.86 10.22–17.61 | 27.04 21.26–32.82 19.76–34.33 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.47 0.31–2.63 0.01–2.93 | 1.56 0.46–2.65 0.18–2.94 | 3.03 0.77–5.28 0.19–5.87 | 36% 24% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.79–2.89 0.53–3.16 | 2.59 1.46–3.72 1.17–4.01 | 4.43 2.25–6.61 1.70–7.17 | 27% 19% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.27 0.84–3.71 0.45–4.10 | 3.24 1.68–4.79 1.26–5.22 | 5.51 2.52–8.50 1.71–9.32 | 26% 16% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.