La Liga·Regular Season - 11·
La Liga·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
78%
homeawaytotalprediction1.003.034.04safe0.04–1.972.18–3.892.21–5.86safer0.00–2.221.95–4.111.73–6.34
Shots on target
85%
homeawaytotalprediction3.557.4911.04safe1.69–5.425.75–9.237.43–14.64safer1.20–5.905.28–9.706.48–15.60
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6219.0929.70safe6.69–14.5415.53–22.6522.22–37.19safer5.60–15.6314.57–23.6120.17–39.24
Shots in box
91%
homeawaytotalprediction6.3712.5418.91safe3.43–9.319.86–15.2213.29–24.54safer2.60–10.149.12–15.9611.72–26.10
Blocked shots
19%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction2.964.847.80safe1.07–4.843.19–6.504.26–11.34safer0.53–5.382.70–6.993.23–12.37
Corners
18%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction3.896.3010.19safe1.68–6.114.30–8.305.98–14.41safer1.11–6.683.77–8.834.87–15.52
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction42.6159.30safe35.82–49.4052.52–66.09safer34.15–51.0750.84–67.76
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction420577997safe353–487511–643863–1131safer335–505493–661828–1166
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction66.3376.67safe62.30–70.3672.35–81.00safer61.01–71.6571.04–82.31
Fouls
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0811.4324.52safe10.25–15.928.49–14.3818.73–30.30safer9.49–16.687.74–15.1317.23–31.80
Offsides
17%
16%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction1.563.024.58safe0.40–2.721.93–4.112.33–6.84safer0.10–3.021.64–4.401.74–7.43
Yellow cards
57%
18%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.631.734.35safe1.58–3.680.60–2.862.17–6.53safer1.31–3.940.31–3.151.62–7.09
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.090.22safe0.00–0.290.00–0.280.00–0.57safer0.00–0.440.00–0.410.00–0.85
GK saves
76%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction4.752.377.11safe3.31–6.180.81–3.924.12–10.11safer2.92–6.570.38–4.353.31–10.92
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.00 0.04–1.97 0.00–2.22 | 3.03 2.18–3.89 1.95–4.11 | 4.04 2.21–5.86 1.73–6.34 | 78% |
| Shots on target | 3.55 1.69–5.42 1.20–5.90 | 7.49 5.75–9.23 5.28–9.70 | 11.04 7.43–14.64 6.48–15.60 | 85% |
| Total shots | 10.62 6.69–14.54 5.60–15.63 | 19.09 15.53–22.65 14.57–23.61 | 29.70 22.22–37.19 20.17–39.24 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 6.37 3.43–9.31 2.60–10.14 | 12.54 9.86–15.22 9.12–15.96 | 18.91 13.29–24.54 11.72–26.10 | 91% |
| Blocked shots | 2.96 1.07–4.84 0.53–5.38 | 4.84 3.19–6.50 2.70–6.99 | 7.80 4.26–11.34 3.23–12.37 | 19% 69% |
| Corners | 3.89 1.68–6.11 1.11–6.68 | 6.30 4.30–8.30 3.77–8.83 | 10.19 5.98–14.41 4.87–15.52 | 18% 73% |
| Possession % | 42.61 35.82–49.40 34.15–51.07 | 59.30 52.52–66.09 50.84–67.76 | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 420 353–487 335–505 | 577 511–643 493–661 | 997 863–1131 828–1166 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.33 62.30–70.36 61.01–71.65 | 76.67 72.35–81.00 71.04–82.31 | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 13.08 10.25–15.92 9.49–16.68 | 11.43 8.49–14.38 7.74–15.13 | 24.52 18.73–30.30 17.23–31.80 | 59% 33% |
| Offsides | 1.56 0.40–2.72 0.10–3.02 | 3.02 1.93–4.11 1.64–4.40 | 4.58 2.33–6.84 1.74–7.43 | 17% 16% 67% |
| Yellow cards | 2.63 1.58–3.68 1.31–3.94 | 1.73 0.60–2.86 0.31–3.15 | 4.35 2.17–6.53 1.62–7.09 | 57% 18% 25% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 4.75 3.31–6.18 2.92–6.57 | 2.37 0.81–3.92 0.38–4.35 | 7.11 4.12–10.11 3.31–10.92 | 76% 13% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.