La Liga·Regular Season - 11·
La Liga·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
27%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.322.56safe0.27–2.210.46–2.170.74–4.38safer0.02–2.460.23–2.400.26–4.86
Shots on target
45%
13%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.664.529.18safe2.80–6.522.78–6.265.57–12.78safer2.31–7.012.31–6.734.62–13.74
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0312.5127.54safe11.11–18.968.95–16.0720.06–35.03safer10.02–20.057.99–17.0318.00–37.08
Shots in box
42%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction7.988.2716.25safe5.04–10.935.59–10.9510.63–21.88safer4.21–11.764.85–11.699.06–23.45
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.193.077.26safe2.31–6.071.42–4.733.73–10.80safer1.76–6.610.93–5.222.69–11.83
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.304.529.82safe3.09–7.522.52–6.525.61–14.04safer2.51–8.091.99–7.064.50–15.15
Possession %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction49.4950.57safe42.70–56.2843.79–57.36safer41.03–57.9542.12–59.03
Passes
52%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction464457921safe397–531390–523787–1055safer379–550373–541752–1090
Pass accuracy %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction68.3270.84safe64.29–72.3466.52–75.16safer62.99–73.6465.21–76.47
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6712.0223.68safe8.83–14.519.07–14.9617.90–29.47safer8.07–15.268.32–15.7116.40–30.97
Offsides
29%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.993.46safe0.31–2.630.90–3.081.21–5.71safer0.01–2.930.61–3.370.62–6.30
Yellow cards
38%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.164.23safe1.03–3.131.03–3.282.05–6.41safer0.76–3.390.74–3.581.50–6.97
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.090.20safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.420.00–0.410.00–0.83
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.913.306.22safe1.48–4.351.75–4.863.23–9.21safer1.09–4.741.32–5.282.41–10.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.27–2.21 0.02–2.46 | 1.32 0.46–2.17 0.23–2.40 | 2.56 0.74–4.38 0.26–4.86 | 35% 27% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.66 2.80–6.52 2.31–7.01 | 4.52 2.78–6.26 2.31–6.73 | 9.18 5.57–12.78 4.62–13.74 | 45% 13% 41% |
| Total shots | 15.03 11.11–18.96 10.02–20.05 | 12.51 8.95–16.07 7.99–17.03 | 27.54 20.06–35.03 18.00–37.08 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 7.98 5.04–10.93 4.21–11.76 | 8.27 5.59–10.95 4.85–11.69 | 16.25 10.63–21.88 9.06–23.45 | 42% 48% |
| Blocked shots | 4.19 2.31–6.07 1.76–6.61 | 3.07 1.42–4.73 0.93–5.22 | 7.26 3.73–10.80 2.69–11.83 | 59% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 5.30 3.09–7.52 2.51–8.09 | 4.52 2.52–6.52 1.99–7.06 | 9.82 5.61–14.04 4.50–15.15 | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 49.49 42.70–56.28 41.03–57.95 | 50.57 43.79–57.36 42.12–59.03 | — | 45% 50% |
| Passes | 464 397–531 379–550 | 457 390–523 373–541 | 921 787–1055 752–1090 | 52% 47% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.32 64.29–72.34 62.99–73.64 | 70.84 66.52–75.16 65.21–76.47 | — | 35% 60% |
| Fouls | 11.67 8.83–14.51 8.07–15.26 | 12.02 9.07–14.96 8.32–15.71 | 23.68 17.90–29.47 16.40–30.97 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.47 0.31–2.63 0.01–2.93 | 1.99 0.90–3.08 0.61–3.37 | 3.46 1.21–5.71 0.62–6.30 | 29% 22% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.03–3.13 0.76–3.39 | 2.16 1.03–3.28 0.74–3.58 | 4.23 2.05–6.41 1.50–6.97 | 38% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.91 1.48–4.35 1.09–4.74 | 3.30 1.75–4.86 1.32–5.28 | 6.22 3.23–9.21 2.41–10.02 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.