La Liga·Regular Season - 24·
La Liga·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.172.60safe0.46–2.400.31–2.020.78–4.42safer0.21–2.650.09–2.250.30–4.90
Shots on target
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.764.068.82safe2.90–6.622.32–5.805.21–12.42safer2.41–7.111.85–6.274.26–13.38
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction15.1512.7127.85safe11.22–19.079.14–16.2720.36–35.34safer10.13–20.168.18–17.2318.31–37.39
Shots in box
58%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction9.047.7416.78safe6.10–11.985.06–10.4211.15–22.40safer5.27–12.814.32–11.169.59–23.97
Blocked shots
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.303.828.12safe2.41–6.182.17–5.474.58–11.65safer1.87–6.721.67–5.973.55–12.69
Corners
60%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.884.5710.44safe3.66–8.092.57–6.576.23–14.66safer3.09–8.662.03–7.105.12–15.76
Possession %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction54.2046.78safe47.41–60.9939.99–53.56safer45.74–62.6638.32–55.23
Passes
77%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction499411910safe432–567345–478777–1044safer414–585327–495741–1080
Pass accuracy %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction69.5169.59safe65.48–73.5465.26–73.91safer64.19–74.8363.95–75.22
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7712.4723.24safe7.93–13.619.53–15.4217.46–29.02safer7.18–14.368.78–16.1615.95–30.53
Offsides
57%
21%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.273.38safe0.95–3.270.18–2.361.12–5.63safer0.64–3.570.00–2.650.53–6.22
Yellow cards
29%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.672.243.91safe0.62–2.721.11–3.371.73–6.08safer0.35–2.980.82–3.661.17–6.64
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.813.005.81safe1.38–4.251.44–4.552.82–8.80safer0.99–4.641.02–4.982.01–9.61
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.46–2.40 0.21–2.65 | 1.17 0.31–2.02 0.09–2.25 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.30–4.90 | 43% 26% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.76 2.90–6.62 2.41–7.11 | 4.06 2.32–5.80 1.85–6.27 | 8.82 5.21–12.42 4.26–13.38 | 53% 13% 34% |
| Total shots | 15.15 11.22–19.07 10.13–20.16 | 12.71 9.14–16.27 8.18–17.23 | 27.85 20.36–35.34 18.31–37.39 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 9.04 6.10–11.98 5.27–12.81 | 7.74 5.06–10.42 4.32–11.16 | 16.78 11.15–22.40 9.59–23.97 | 58% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 4.30 2.41–6.18 1.87–6.72 | 3.82 2.17–5.47 1.67–5.97 | 8.12 4.58–11.65 3.55–12.69 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Corners | 5.88 3.66–8.09 3.09–8.66 | 4.57 2.57–6.57 2.03–7.10 | 10.44 6.23–14.66 5.12–15.76 | 60% 29% |
| Possession % | 54.20 47.41–60.99 45.74–62.66 | 46.78 39.99–53.56 38.32–55.23 | — | 65% 31% |
| Passes | 499 432–567 414–585 | 411 345–478 327–495 | 910 777–1044 741–1080 | 77% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.51 65.48–73.54 64.19–74.83 | 69.59 65.26–73.91 63.95–75.22 | — | 47% 48% |
| Fouls | 10.77 7.93–13.61 7.18–14.36 | 12.47 9.53–15.42 8.78–16.16 | 23.24 17.46–29.02 15.95–30.53 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 2.11 0.95–3.27 0.64–3.57 | 1.27 0.18–2.36 0.00–2.65 | 3.38 1.12–5.63 0.53–6.22 | 57% 21% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 0.62–2.72 0.35–2.98 | 2.24 1.11–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 3.91 1.73–6.08 1.17–6.64 | 29% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.81 1.38–4.25 0.99–4.64 | 3.00 1.44–4.55 1.02–4.98 | 5.81 2.82–8.80 2.01–9.61 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.