La Liga·Regular Season - 11·
La Liga·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
65%
20%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.060.892.95safe1.09–3.030.03–1.741.12–4.77safer0.84–3.280.00–1.970.64–5.25
Shots on target
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.993.319.30safe4.12–7.851.57–5.065.69–12.90safer3.63–8.341.11–5.524.74–13.86
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction16.729.9626.68safe12.79–20.646.40–13.5219.19–34.16safer11.70–21.735.44–14.4817.14–36.21
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction11.196.8018.00safe8.25–14.144.12–9.4912.37–23.62safer7.42–14.963.39–10.2210.81–25.19
Blocked shots
65%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.572.997.56safe2.69–6.451.34–4.644.02–11.09safer2.14–6.990.84–5.132.99–12.13
Corners
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.413.6010.02safe4.20–8.631.60–5.605.80–14.23safer3.63–9.201.07–6.144.70–15.34
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction60.5039.03safe53.71–67.2932.25–45.82safer52.04–68.9630.58–47.49
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction557338895safe490–624271–404761–1028safer471–642254–422725–1064
Pass accuracy %
84%
homeawayprediction75.7767.44safe71.74–79.8063.12–71.76safer70.45–81.0961.81–73.07
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3314.5926.92safe9.49–15.1711.64–17.5321.14–32.70safer8.74–15.9210.90–18.2819.63–34.21
Offsides
42%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.483.12safe0.48–2.800.39–2.570.86–5.37safer0.18–3.100.10–2.860.27–5.96
Yellow cards
26%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.682.484.16safe0.63–2.731.35–3.611.98–6.34safer0.37–3.001.06–3.901.42–6.90
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.81
GK saves
21%
14%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.253.715.96safe0.82–3.692.15–5.262.97–8.95safer0.43–4.081.73–5.692.16–9.77
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.06 1.09–3.03 0.84–3.28 | 0.89 0.03–1.74 0.00–1.97 | 2.95 1.12–4.77 0.64–5.25 | 65% 20% 15% |
| Shots on target | 5.99 4.12–7.85 3.63–8.34 | 3.31 1.57–5.06 1.11–5.52 | 9.30 5.69–12.90 4.74–13.86 | 76% 15% |
| Total shots | 16.72 12.79–20.64 11.70–21.73 | 9.96 6.40–13.52 5.44–14.48 | 26.68 19.19–34.16 17.14–36.21 | 89% |
| Shots in box | 11.19 8.25–14.14 7.42–14.96 | 6.80 4.12–9.49 3.39–10.22 | 18.00 12.37–23.62 10.81–25.19 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 4.57 2.69–6.45 2.14–6.99 | 2.99 1.34–4.64 0.84–5.13 | 7.56 4.02–11.09 2.99–12.13 | 65% 22% |
| Corners | 6.41 4.20–8.63 3.63–9.20 | 3.60 1.60–5.60 1.07–6.14 | 10.02 5.80–14.23 4.70–15.34 | 77% 14% |
| Possession % | 60.50 53.71–67.29 52.04–68.96 | 39.03 32.25–45.82 30.58–47.49 | — | 89% |
| Passes | 557 490–624 471–642 | 338 271–404 254–422 | 895 761–1028 725–1064 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.77 71.74–79.80 70.45–81.09 | 67.44 63.12–71.76 61.81–73.07 | — | 84% |
| Fouls | 12.33 9.49–15.17 8.74–15.92 | 14.59 11.64–17.53 10.90–18.28 | 26.92 21.14–32.70 19.63–34.21 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.48–2.80 0.18–3.10 | 1.48 0.39–2.57 0.10–2.86 | 3.12 0.86–5.37 0.27–5.96 | 42% 24% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 0.63–2.73 0.37–3.00 | 2.48 1.35–3.61 1.06–3.90 | 4.16 1.98–6.34 1.42–6.90 | 26% 19% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.25 0.82–3.69 0.43–4.08 | 3.71 2.15–5.26 1.73–5.69 | 5.96 2.97–8.95 2.16–9.77 | 21% 14% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.