La Liga·Regular Season - 12·
La Liga·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
23%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.762.91safe0.18–2.120.91–2.621.09–4.73safer0.00–2.370.68–2.850.61–5.21
Shots on target
26%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction4.045.549.57safe2.17–5.903.80–7.285.97–13.18safer1.68–6.393.33–7.755.01–14.13
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8213.8726.69safe8.89–16.7410.31–17.4419.20–34.18safer7.80–17.839.35–18.3917.15–36.23
Shots in box
23%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction7.4710.1117.58safe4.53–10.417.43–12.7911.96–23.20safer3.70–11.246.69–13.5310.39–24.77
Blocked shots
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.143.546.67safe1.25–5.021.88–5.193.14–10.21safer0.71–5.561.39–5.682.10–11.24
Corners
40%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.574.859.42safe2.36–6.782.85–6.855.21–13.63safer1.78–7.362.31–7.384.10–14.74
Possession %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction47.1253.82safe40.33–53.9247.04–60.61safer38.66–55.5845.37–62.28
Passes
30%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction443505948safe376–510439–572815–1082safer357–528421–589779–1118
Pass accuracy %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction65.8473.05safe61.81–69.8768.72–77.37safer60.52–71.1767.42–78.68
Fouls
54%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6712.6926.36safe10.83–16.509.75–15.6420.58–32.14safer10.07–17.269.00–16.3919.07–33.65
Offsides
33%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.583.115.69safe1.42–3.742.02–4.213.44–7.95safer1.12–4.041.73–4.492.85–8.54
Yellow cards
43%
19%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.482.354.84safe1.44–3.531.22–3.482.66–7.01safer1.17–3.800.93–3.772.10–7.57
Red cards
13%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.130.29safe0.00–0.320.00–0.320.00–0.64safer0.00–0.470.00–0.450.00–0.92
GK saves
53%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.652.926.57safe2.21–5.081.37–4.483.58–9.57safer1.83–5.470.94–4.912.77–10.38
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 0.18–2.12 0.00–2.37 | 1.76 0.91–2.62 0.68–2.85 | 2.91 1.09–4.73 0.61–5.21 | 25% 23% 52% |
| Shots on target | 4.04 2.17–5.90 1.68–6.39 | 5.54 3.80–7.28 3.33–7.75 | 9.57 5.97–13.18 5.01–14.13 | 26% 63% |
| Total shots | 12.82 8.89–16.74 7.80–17.83 | 13.87 10.31–17.44 9.35–18.39 | 26.69 19.20–34.18 17.15–36.23 | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 7.47 4.53–10.41 3.70–11.24 | 10.11 7.43–12.79 6.69–13.53 | 17.58 11.96–23.20 10.39–24.77 | 23% 70% |
| Blocked shots | 3.14 1.25–5.02 0.71–5.56 | 3.54 1.88–5.19 1.39–5.68 | 6.67 3.14–10.21 2.10–11.24 | 36% 16% 48% |
| Corners | 4.57 2.36–6.78 1.78–7.36 | 4.85 2.85–6.85 2.31–7.38 | 9.42 5.21–13.63 4.10–14.74 | 40% 13% 47% |
| Possession % | 47.12 40.33–53.92 38.66–55.58 | 53.82 47.04–60.61 45.37–62.28 | — | 32% 63% |
| Passes | 443 376–510 357–528 | 505 439–572 421–589 | 948 815–1082 779–1118 | 30% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.84 61.81–69.87 60.52–71.17 | 73.05 68.72–77.37 67.42–78.68 | — | 16% 81% |
| Fouls | 13.67 10.83–16.50 10.07–17.26 | 12.69 9.75–15.64 9.00–16.39 | 26.36 20.58–32.14 19.07–33.65 | 54% 39% |
| Offsides | 2.58 1.42–3.74 1.12–4.04 | 3.11 2.02–4.21 1.73–4.49 | 5.69 3.44–7.95 2.85–8.54 | 33% 17% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 2.48 1.44–3.53 1.17–3.80 | 2.35 1.22–3.48 0.93–3.77 | 4.84 2.66–7.01 2.10–7.57 | 43% 19% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.29 0.00–0.64 0.00–0.92 | 13% 76% |
| GK saves | 3.65 2.21–5.08 1.83–5.47 | 2.92 1.37–4.48 0.94–4.91 | 6.57 3.58–9.57 2.77–10.38 | 53% 15% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+