La Liga·Regular Season - 12·
La Liga·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
26%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.082.57safe0.53–2.470.22–1.930.75–4.40safer0.28–2.720.00–2.160.27–4.88
Shots on target
56%
13%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.603.658.25safe2.73–6.461.91–5.394.64–11.85safer2.24–6.951.44–5.863.69–12.81
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3811.1225.50safe10.45–18.307.56–14.6818.01–32.99safer9.36–19.396.60–15.6415.96–35.04
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction9.346.7916.12safe6.40–12.284.11–9.4710.50–21.75safer5.57–13.113.37–10.218.93–23.31
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.173.057.21safe2.29–6.051.39–4.703.68–10.75safer1.74–6.590.90–5.192.64–11.78
Corners
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.873.829.68safe3.65–8.081.82–5.825.47–13.90safer3.08–8.651.28–6.354.36–15.00
Possession %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction48.8051.48safe42.01–55.5944.69–58.26safer40.34–57.2643.02–59.93
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction448436884safe381–515369–502750–1018safer363–533352–520714–1053
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction66.9672.30safe62.93–70.9967.97–76.62safer61.64–72.2966.66–77.93
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3813.0326.41safe10.54–16.2210.08–15.9720.62–32.19safer9.79–16.979.33–16.7219.12–33.69
Offsides
49%
23%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.273.04safe0.61–2.940.17–2.360.79–5.29safer0.31–3.240.00–2.650.20–5.88
Yellow cards
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.132.204.33safe1.08–3.181.07–3.332.15–6.51safer0.81–3.440.78–3.621.59–7.07
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
29%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.453.215.65safe1.01–3.881.65–4.762.66–8.65safer0.62–4.271.23–5.191.85–9.46
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.53–2.47 0.28–2.72 | 1.08 0.22–1.93 0.00–2.16 | 2.57 0.75–4.40 0.27–4.88 | 47% 26% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.60 2.73–6.46 2.24–6.95 | 3.65 1.91–5.39 1.44–5.86 | 8.25 4.64–11.85 3.69–12.81 | 56% 13% 31% |
| Total shots | 14.38 10.45–18.30 9.36–19.39 | 11.12 7.56–14.68 6.60–15.64 | 25.50 18.01–32.99 15.96–35.04 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 9.34 6.40–12.28 5.57–13.11 | 6.79 4.11–9.47 3.37–10.21 | 16.12 10.50–21.75 8.93–23.31 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 4.17 2.29–6.05 1.74–6.59 | 3.05 1.39–4.70 0.90–5.19 | 7.21 3.68–10.75 2.64–11.78 | 59% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 5.87 3.65–8.08 3.08–8.65 | 3.82 1.82–5.82 1.28–6.35 | 9.68 5.47–13.90 4.36–15.00 | 69% 20% |
| Possession % | 48.80 42.01–55.59 40.34–57.26 | 51.48 44.69–58.26 43.02–59.93 | — | 41% 54% |
| Passes | 448 381–515 363–533 | 436 369–502 352–520 | 884 750–1018 714–1053 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.96 62.93–70.99 61.64–72.29 | 72.30 67.97–76.62 66.66–77.93 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 13.38 10.54–16.22 9.79–16.97 | 13.03 10.08–15.97 9.33–16.72 | 26.41 20.62–32.19 19.12–33.69 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.61–2.94 0.31–3.24 | 1.27 0.17–2.36 0.00–2.65 | 3.04 0.79–5.29 0.20–5.88 | 49% 23% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 2.13 1.08–3.18 0.81–3.44 | 2.20 1.07–3.33 0.78–3.62 | 4.33 2.15–6.51 1.59–7.07 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.01–3.88 0.62–4.27 | 3.21 1.65–4.76 1.23–5.19 | 5.65 2.66–8.65 1.85–9.46 | 29% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.