La Liga·Regular Season - 37·
La Liga·Regular Season - 37·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.302.61safe0.35–2.290.44–2.150.79–4.44safer0.10–2.540.21–2.380.31–4.92
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.243.958.18safe2.38–6.102.20–5.694.58–11.79safer1.89–6.591.74–6.153.62–12.74
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6011.8525.45safe9.67–17.528.29–15.4217.96–32.94safer8.58–18.617.33–16.3815.91–34.99
Shots in box
47%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction7.867.6415.49safe4.91–10.804.95–10.329.87–21.12safer4.09–11.634.22–11.058.30–22.68
Blocked shots
49%
15%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.793.347.13safe1.90–5.671.69–4.993.59–10.66safer1.36–6.211.20–5.492.56–11.70
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.064.469.52safe2.85–7.272.46–6.465.31–13.73safer2.27–7.851.93–6.994.20–14.84
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.4445.38safe47.65–61.2338.59–52.16safer45.98–62.9036.92–53.83
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction485408892safe418–552341–474759–1026safer399–570324–492723–1062
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction70.5970.84safe66.56–74.6266.52–75.16safer65.27–75.9165.21–76.47
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5513.4925.05safe8.71–14.3910.55–16.4419.26–30.83safer7.96–15.149.80–17.1917.76–32.33
Offsides
31%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.833.29safe0.30–2.620.74–2.921.03–5.54safer0.00–2.920.45–3.210.44–6.13
Yellow cards
34%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.993.73safe0.69–2.790.86–3.121.55–5.91safer0.42–3.060.57–3.410.99–6.46
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.782.835.61safe1.34–4.221.27–4.392.62–8.60safer0.96–4.600.85–4.811.80–9.41
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.30 0.44–2.15 0.21–2.38 | 2.61 0.79–4.44 0.31–4.92 | 37% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.24 2.38–6.10 1.89–6.59 | 3.95 2.20–5.69 1.74–6.15 | 8.18 4.58–11.79 3.62–12.74 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 13.60 9.67–17.52 8.58–18.61 | 11.85 8.29–15.42 7.33–16.38 | 25.45 17.96–32.94 15.91–34.99 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 7.86 4.91–10.80 4.09–11.63 | 7.64 4.95–10.32 4.22–11.05 | 15.49 9.87–21.12 8.30–22.68 | 47% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.79 1.90–5.67 1.36–6.21 | 3.34 1.69–4.99 1.20–5.49 | 7.13 3.59–10.66 2.56–11.70 | 49% 15% 36% |
| Corners | 5.06 2.85–7.27 2.27–7.85 | 4.46 2.46–6.46 1.93–6.99 | 9.52 5.31–13.73 4.20–14.84 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 54.44 47.65–61.23 45.98–62.90 | 45.38 38.59–52.16 36.92–53.83 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 485 418–552 399–570 | 408 341–474 324–492 | 892 759–1026 723–1062 | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.59 66.56–74.62 65.27–75.91 | 70.84 66.52–75.16 65.21–76.47 | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 11.55 8.71–14.39 7.96–15.14 | 13.49 10.55–16.44 9.80–17.19 | 25.05 19.26–30.83 17.76–32.33 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.46 0.30–2.62 0.00–2.92 | 1.83 0.74–2.92 0.45–3.21 | 3.29 1.03–5.54 0.44–6.13 | 31% 23% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 0.69–2.79 0.42–3.06 | 1.99 0.86–3.12 0.57–3.41 | 3.73 1.55–5.91 0.99–6.46 | 34% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.34–4.22 0.96–4.60 | 2.83 1.27–4.39 0.85–4.81 | 5.61 2.62–8.60 1.80–9.41 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+