La Liga·Regular Season - 12·
La Liga·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.563.12safe0.59–2.520.71–2.421.29–4.94safer0.34–2.780.48–2.640.82–5.42
Shots on target
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.064.489.55safe3.20–6.932.74–6.225.94–13.15safer2.71–7.422.27–6.694.99–14.11
Total shots
67%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8412.1026.94safe10.91–18.768.54–15.6719.45–34.43safer9.82–19.857.58–16.6317.40–36.48
Shots in box
57%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction9.217.9817.19safe6.27–12.165.30–10.6611.57–22.82safer5.44–12.984.56–11.4010.00–24.38
Blocked shots
57%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.562.636.19safe1.68–5.440.98–4.282.65–9.72safer1.13–5.980.49–4.781.62–10.76
Corners
62%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction6.024.5110.53safe3.81–8.232.51–6.516.32–14.75safer3.23–8.811.98–7.055.21–15.86
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction51.0248.16safe44.23–57.8141.37–54.94safer42.56–59.4839.70–56.61
Passes
64%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction478434912safe411–545368–501778–1046safer392–563350–518743–1081
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction68.5670.24safe64.53–72.5965.92–74.56safer63.24–73.8964.61–75.87
Fouls
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4611.3824.83safe10.62–16.298.43–14.3219.05–30.62safer9.86–17.057.69–15.0717.55–32.12
Offsides
50%
19%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.572.034.60safe1.41–3.730.94–3.122.35–6.86safer1.11–4.030.65–3.411.76–7.45
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.134.17safe0.98–3.081.01–3.261.99–6.34safer0.72–3.350.71–3.551.43–6.90
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.120.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.82
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.843.276.11safe1.40–4.281.72–4.833.12–9.10safer1.02–4.661.29–5.252.31–9.92
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 0.59–2.52 0.34–2.78 | 1.56 0.71–2.42 0.48–2.64 | 3.12 1.29–4.94 0.82–5.42 | 38% 24% 38% |
| Shots on target | 5.06 3.20–6.93 2.71–7.42 | 4.48 2.74–6.22 2.27–6.69 | 9.55 5.94–13.15 4.99–14.11 | 51% 36% |
| Total shots | 14.84 10.91–18.76 9.82–19.85 | 12.10 8.54–15.67 7.58–16.63 | 26.94 19.45–34.43 17.40–36.48 | 67% 27% |
| Shots in box | 9.21 6.27–12.16 5.44–12.98 | 7.98 5.30–10.66 4.56–11.40 | 17.19 11.57–22.82 10.00–24.38 | 57% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 3.56 1.68–5.44 1.13–5.98 | 2.63 0.98–4.28 0.49–4.78 | 6.19 2.65–9.72 1.62–10.76 | 57% 15% 28% |
| Corners | 6.02 3.81–8.23 3.23–8.81 | 4.51 2.51–6.51 1.98–7.05 | 10.53 6.32–14.75 5.21–15.86 | 62% 27% |
| Possession % | 51.02 44.23–57.81 42.56–59.48 | 48.16 41.37–54.94 39.70–56.61 | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 478 411–545 392–563 | 434 368–501 350–518 | 912 778–1046 743–1081 | 64% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.56 64.53–72.59 63.24–73.89 | 70.24 65.92–74.56 64.61–75.87 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 13.46 10.62–16.29 9.86–17.05 | 11.38 8.43–14.32 7.69–15.07 | 24.83 19.05–30.62 17.55–32.12 | 62% 30% |
| Offsides | 2.57 1.41–3.73 1.11–4.03 | 2.03 0.94–3.12 0.65–3.41 | 4.60 2.35–6.86 1.76–7.45 | 50% 19% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.98–3.08 0.72–3.35 | 2.13 1.01–3.26 0.71–3.55 | 4.17 1.99–6.34 1.43–6.90 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.84 1.40–4.28 1.02–4.66 | 3.27 1.72–4.83 1.29–5.25 | 6.11 3.12–9.10 2.31–9.92 | 35% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.