La Liga·Regular Season - 33·
La Liga·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
24%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.282.98safe0.73–2.660.43–2.141.15–4.80safer0.48–2.910.20–2.360.67–5.28
Shots on target
48%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.904.529.42safe3.03–6.762.78–6.265.81–13.02safer2.55–7.252.31–6.734.86–13.98
Total shots
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3913.2726.66safe9.46–17.319.71–16.8419.17–34.15safer8.37–18.408.75–17.8017.12–36.20
Shots in box
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction8.978.4017.38safe6.03–11.915.72–11.0911.75–23.00safer5.20–12.744.99–11.8210.19–24.57
Blocked shots
41%
15%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.513.587.09safe1.63–5.391.92–5.233.55–10.62safer1.08–5.941.43–5.722.52–11.66
Corners
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction5.075.2810.35safe2.85–7.283.28–7.286.13–14.56safer2.28–7.852.75–7.815.03–15.67
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction51.6149.56safe44.82–58.4042.78–56.35safer43.15–60.0741.11–58.02
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction485454939safe418–552387–520805–1073safer400–570370–538770–1108
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction68.6171.47safe64.58–72.6467.15–75.80safer63.28–73.9365.84–77.10
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6713.8226.50safe9.84–15.5110.88–16.7720.71–32.28safer9.08–16.2710.13–17.5219.21–33.78
Offsides
28%
18%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.892.634.52safe0.73–3.051.53–3.722.26–6.77safer0.43–3.351.24–4.011.68–7.36
Yellow cards
29%
19%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.544.46safe0.87–2.971.41–3.672.28–6.64safer0.61–3.241.12–3.961.72–7.19
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.130.22safe0.00–0.260.00–0.310.00–0.57safer0.00–0.410.00–0.450.00–0.85
GK saves
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.243.176.41safe1.80–4.681.62–4.733.42–9.41safer1.42–5.061.19–5.152.61–10.22
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.69 0.73–2.66 0.48–2.91 | 1.28 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.36 | 2.98 1.15–4.80 0.67–5.28 | 47% 24% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.90 3.03–6.76 2.55–7.25 | 4.52 2.78–6.26 2.31–6.73 | 9.42 5.81–13.02 4.86–13.98 | 48% 13% 39% |
| Total shots | 13.39 9.46–17.31 8.37–18.40 | 13.27 9.71–16.84 8.75–17.80 | 26.66 19.17–34.15 17.12–36.20 | 47% 45% |
| Shots in box | 8.97 6.03–11.91 5.20–12.74 | 8.40 5.72–11.09 4.99–11.82 | 17.38 11.75–23.00 10.19–24.57 | 51% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.51 1.63–5.39 1.08–5.94 | 3.58 1.92–5.23 1.43–5.72 | 7.09 3.55–10.62 2.52–11.66 | 41% 15% 43% |
| Corners | 5.07 2.85–7.28 2.28–7.85 | 5.28 3.28–7.28 2.75–7.81 | 10.35 6.13–14.56 5.03–15.67 | 41% 46% |
| Possession % | 51.61 44.82–58.40 43.15–60.07 | 49.56 42.78–56.35 41.11–58.02 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 485 418–552 400–570 | 454 387–520 370–538 | 939 805–1073 770–1108 | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.61 64.58–72.64 63.28–73.93 | 71.47 67.15–75.80 65.84–77.10 | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 12.67 9.84–15.51 9.08–16.27 | 13.82 10.88–16.77 10.13–17.52 | 26.50 20.71–32.28 19.21–33.78 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.89 0.73–3.05 0.43–3.35 | 2.63 1.53–3.72 1.24–4.01 | 4.52 2.26–6.77 1.68–7.36 | 28% 18% 54% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.61–3.24 | 2.54 1.41–3.67 1.12–3.96 | 4.46 2.28–6.64 1.72–7.19 | 29% 19% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.24 1.80–4.68 1.42–5.06 | 3.17 1.62–4.73 1.19–5.15 | 6.41 3.42–9.41 2.61–10.22 | 43% 16% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.