La Liga·Regular Season - 12·
La Liga·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.392.91safe0.56–2.500.53–2.241.09–4.74safer0.31–2.750.30–2.470.61–5.22
Shots on target
44%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.794.719.50safe2.92–6.652.97–6.455.89–13.10safer2.44–7.142.50–6.924.94–14.06
Total shots
59%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction15.6013.8829.47safe11.67–19.5210.31–17.4421.99–36.96safer10.58–20.619.35–18.4019.94–39.01
Shots in box
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction9.438.4017.82safe6.48–12.375.72–11.0812.20–23.45safer5.65–13.204.98–11.8210.63–25.01
Blocked shots
55%
13%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.633.788.41safe2.75–6.512.12–5.434.87–11.94safer2.20–7.061.63–5.923.84–12.98
Corners
61%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction6.254.8011.05safe4.04–8.472.80–6.806.84–15.27safer3.47–9.042.27–7.335.73–16.37
Possession %
60%
36%
homeawayprediction52.7647.51safe45.97–59.5540.72–54.29safer44.30–61.2239.05–55.96
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction477415892safe410–544349–482759–1026safer392–562331–499723–1062
Pass accuracy %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction62.6367.34safe58.60–66.6663.02–71.66safer57.31–67.9561.71–72.97
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2112.0422.25safe7.37–13.049.10–14.9916.47–28.03safer6.61–13.808.35–15.7314.96–29.53
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.783.63safe0.69–3.010.69–2.881.38–5.89safer0.39–3.310.40–3.170.79–6.47
Yellow cards
28%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.213.83safe0.57–2.671.08–3.341.65–6.00safer0.30–2.930.79–3.631.09–6.56
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.833.256.08safe1.39–4.261.70–4.813.09–9.07safer1.00–4.651.27–5.232.28–9.89
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 0.56–2.50 0.31–2.75 | 1.39 0.53–2.24 0.30–2.47 | 2.91 1.09–4.74 0.61–5.22 | 41% 25% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.79 2.92–6.65 2.44–7.14 | 4.71 2.97–6.45 2.50–6.92 | 9.50 5.89–13.10 4.94–14.06 | 44% 13% 42% |
| Total shots | 15.60 11.67–19.52 10.58–20.61 | 13.88 10.31–17.44 9.35–18.40 | 29.47 21.99–36.96 19.94–39.01 | 59% 34% |
| Shots in box | 9.43 6.48–12.37 5.65–13.20 | 8.40 5.72–11.08 4.98–11.82 | 17.82 12.20–23.45 10.63–25.01 | 55% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 4.63 2.75–6.51 2.20–7.06 | 3.78 2.12–5.43 1.63–5.92 | 8.41 4.87–11.94 3.84–12.98 | 55% 13% 32% |
| Corners | 6.25 4.04–8.47 3.47–9.04 | 4.80 2.80–6.80 2.27–7.33 | 11.05 6.84–15.27 5.73–16.37 | 61% 28% |
| Possession % | 52.76 45.97–59.55 44.30–61.22 | 47.51 40.72–54.29 39.05–55.96 | — | 60% 36% |
| Passes | 477 410–544 392–562 | 415 349–482 331–499 | 892 759–1026 723–1062 | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.63 58.60–66.66 57.31–67.95 | 67.34 63.02–71.66 61.71–72.97 | — | 25% 71% |
| Fouls | 10.21 7.37–13.04 6.61–13.80 | 12.04 9.10–14.99 8.35–15.73 | 22.25 16.47–28.03 14.96–29.53 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.85 0.69–3.01 0.39–3.31 | 1.78 0.69–2.88 0.40–3.17 | 3.63 1.38–5.89 0.79–6.47 | 40% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.57–2.67 0.30–2.93 | 2.21 1.08–3.34 0.79–3.63 | 3.83 1.65–6.00 1.09–6.56 | 28% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.83 1.39–4.26 1.00–4.65 | 3.25 1.70–4.81 1.27–5.23 | 6.08 3.09–9.07 2.28–9.89 | 35% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.