La Liga·Regular Season - 31·
La Liga·Regular Season - 31·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.553.10safe0.59–2.530.69–2.401.28–4.93safer0.34–2.780.46–2.630.80–5.41
Shots on target
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.954.359.30safe3.09–6.812.61–6.105.70–12.91safer2.60–7.302.15–6.564.74–13.86
Total shots
68%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction15.8212.8628.68safe11.90–19.749.30–16.4221.19–36.17safer10.80–20.848.34–17.3819.14–38.22
Shots in box
58%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction9.698.3518.04safe6.74–12.635.67–11.0312.41–23.66safer5.91–13.464.93–11.7710.85–25.23
Blocked shots
49%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.484.078.55safe2.60–6.362.42–5.735.02–12.09safer2.06–6.911.93–6.223.98–13.12
Corners
48%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.615.2610.86safe3.39–7.823.26–7.266.65–15.08safer2.82–8.392.72–7.795.54–16.18
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction50.9149.49safe44.12–57.7042.70–56.27safer42.45–59.3741.03–57.94
Passes
69%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction475416890safe407–542349–482757–1024safer389–560332–500721–1060
Pass accuracy %
33%
63%
homeawayprediction65.4668.44safe61.43–69.4964.12–72.76safer60.14–70.7862.81–74.07
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0711.3622.43safe8.23–13.908.42–14.3116.65–28.21safer7.47–14.667.67–15.0515.14–29.71
Offsides
41%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.803.69safe0.73–3.050.71–2.901.44–5.94safer0.42–3.350.42–3.180.85–6.53
Yellow cards
40%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.843.71safe0.82–2.910.71–2.971.53–5.89safer0.55–3.180.42–3.260.97–6.44
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
37%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.933.276.20safe1.50–4.371.71–4.823.21–9.19safer1.11–4.751.29–5.252.39–10.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 0.59–2.53 0.34–2.78 | 1.55 0.69–2.40 0.46–2.63 | 3.10 1.28–4.93 0.80–5.41 | 38% 24% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.95 3.09–6.81 2.60–7.30 | 4.35 2.61–6.10 2.15–6.56 | 9.30 5.70–12.91 4.74–13.86 | 51% 13% 36% |
| Total shots | 15.82 11.90–19.74 10.80–20.84 | 12.86 9.30–16.42 8.34–17.38 | 28.68 21.19–36.17 19.14–38.22 | 68% 26% |
| Shots in box | 9.69 6.74–12.63 5.91–13.46 | 8.35 5.67–11.03 4.93–11.77 | 18.04 12.41–23.66 10.85–25.23 | 58% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 4.48 2.60–6.36 2.06–6.91 | 4.07 2.42–5.73 1.93–6.22 | 8.55 5.02–12.09 3.98–13.12 | 49% 14% 38% |
| Corners | 5.61 3.39–7.82 2.82–8.39 | 5.26 3.26–7.26 2.72–7.79 | 10.86 6.65–15.08 5.54–16.18 | 48% 40% |
| Possession % | 50.91 44.12–57.70 42.45–59.37 | 49.49 42.70–56.27 41.03–57.94 | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 475 407–542 389–560 | 416 349–482 332–500 | 890 757–1024 721–1060 | 69% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.46 61.43–69.49 60.14–70.78 | 68.44 64.12–72.76 62.81–74.07 | — | 33% 63% |
| Fouls | 11.07 8.23–13.90 7.47–14.66 | 11.36 8.42–14.31 7.67–15.05 | 22.43 16.65–28.21 15.14–29.71 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.89 0.73–3.05 0.42–3.35 | 1.80 0.71–2.90 0.42–3.18 | 3.69 1.44–5.94 0.85–6.53 | 41% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 0.82–2.91 0.55–3.18 | 1.84 0.71–2.97 0.42–3.26 | 3.71 1.53–5.89 0.97–6.44 | 40% 22% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.50–4.37 1.11–4.75 | 3.27 1.71–4.82 1.29–5.25 | 6.20 3.21–9.19 2.39–10.00 | 37% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.