La Liga·Regular Season - 21·
La Liga·Regular Season - 21·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.142.61safe0.51–2.440.28–1.990.79–4.43safer0.25–2.690.05–2.220.31–4.91
Shots on target
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.714.449.14safe2.84–6.572.69–6.185.54–12.75safer2.35–7.062.23–6.644.58–13.70
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5412.4426.98safe10.62–18.478.88–16.0019.50–34.47safer9.52–19.567.92–16.9617.44–36.52
Shots in box
50%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction8.517.9816.49safe5.57–11.455.30–10.6610.86–22.11safer4.74–12.284.56–11.409.30–23.68
Blocked shots
53%
15%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.873.167.03safe1.99–5.751.50–4.813.49–10.57safer1.45–6.301.01–5.302.46–11.60
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.744.3310.07safe3.53–7.962.33–6.335.86–14.28safer2.96–8.531.79–6.864.75–15.39
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction55.7743.86safe48.98–62.5637.08–50.65safer47.31–64.2335.41–52.32
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction502383885safe435–569317–450752–1019safer417–588299–467716–1055
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction66.8965.96safe62.86–70.9261.64–70.29safer61.57–72.2160.33–71.60
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1614.3226.48safe9.32–15.0011.38–17.2720.70–32.26safer8.57–15.7510.63–18.0119.19–33.77
Offsides
22%
16%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.833.004.83safe0.67–2.991.91–4.092.58–7.08safer0.37–3.291.62–4.381.99–7.67
Yellow cards
29%
18%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.092.814.90safe1.04–3.141.68–3.942.72–7.08safer0.77–3.401.39–4.232.16–7.63
Red cards
76%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.160.30safe0.00–0.300.00–0.350.00–0.65safer0.00–0.450.00–0.480.00–0.93
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.055.72safe1.23–4.101.50–4.612.73–8.71safer0.84–4.491.07–5.031.91–9.52
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.51–2.44 0.25–2.69 | 1.14 0.28–1.99 0.05–2.22 | 2.61 0.79–4.43 0.31–4.91 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.71 2.84–6.57 2.35–7.06 | 4.44 2.69–6.18 2.23–6.64 | 9.14 5.54–12.75 4.58–13.70 | 47% 13% 40% |
| Total shots | 14.54 10.62–18.47 9.52–19.56 | 12.44 8.88–16.00 7.92–16.96 | 26.98 19.50–34.47 17.44–36.52 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 8.51 5.57–11.45 4.74–12.28 | 7.98 5.30–10.66 4.56–11.40 | 16.49 10.86–22.11 9.30–23.68 | 50% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.87 1.99–5.75 1.45–6.30 | 3.16 1.50–4.81 1.01–5.30 | 7.03 3.49–10.57 2.46–11.60 | 53% 15% 32% |
| Corners | 5.74 3.53–7.96 2.96–8.53 | 4.33 2.33–6.33 1.79–6.86 | 10.07 5.86–14.28 4.75–15.39 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 55.77 48.98–62.56 47.31–64.23 | 43.86 37.08–50.65 35.41–52.32 | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 502 435–569 417–588 | 383 317–450 299–467 | 885 752–1019 716–1055 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.89 62.86–70.92 61.57–72.21 | 65.96 61.64–70.29 60.33–71.60 | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 12.16 9.32–15.00 8.57–15.75 | 14.32 11.38–17.27 10.63–18.01 | 26.48 20.70–32.26 19.19–33.77 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.29 | 3.00 1.91–4.09 1.62–4.38 | 4.83 2.58–7.08 1.99–7.67 | 22% 16% 62% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.04–3.14 0.77–3.40 | 2.81 1.68–3.94 1.39–4.23 | 4.90 2.72–7.08 2.16–7.63 | 29% 18% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.16 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.48 | 0.30 0.00–0.65 0.00–0.93 | 76% 13% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.23–4.10 0.84–4.49 | 3.05 1.50–4.61 1.07–5.03 | 5.72 2.73–8.71 1.91–9.52 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+