La Liga·Regular Season - 22·
La Liga·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
24%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.662.92safe0.29–2.220.81–2.511.09–4.74safer0.04–2.470.58–2.740.61–5.22
Shots on target
34%
13%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.214.919.12safe2.34–6.073.17–6.665.52–12.73safer1.85–6.562.71–7.124.56–13.68
Total shots
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1913.9427.13safe9.27–17.1210.38–17.5019.65–34.62safer8.17–18.219.42–18.4617.60–36.67
Shots in box
37%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction8.088.9817.06safe5.14–11.026.30–11.6611.44–22.69safer4.31–11.855.56–12.409.87–24.25
Blocked shots
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.554.127.67safe1.67–5.432.47–5.784.14–11.21safer1.12–5.981.98–6.273.10–12.25
Corners
37%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.835.3910.22safe2.62–7.053.39–7.396.01–14.43safer2.05–7.622.85–7.924.90–15.54
Possession %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction45.6255.30safe38.83–52.4148.51–62.08safer37.16–54.0846.84–63.76
Passes
38%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction423461884safe356–490394–527750–1018safer338–509377–545715–1053
Pass accuracy %
13%
84%
homeawayprediction64.4872.66safe60.45–68.5168.34–76.98safer59.16–69.8067.03–78.29
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1212.2623.39safe8.29–13.969.32–15.2117.60–29.17safer7.53–14.728.57–15.9616.10–30.67
Offsides
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.742.183.92safe0.58–2.901.08–3.271.67–6.17safer0.28–3.200.80–3.561.08–6.76
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.983.69safe0.65–2.750.85–3.111.51–5.86safer0.39–3.020.56–3.400.95–6.42
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
47%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.272.946.21safe1.83–4.701.39–4.503.22–9.20safer1.44–5.090.96–4.922.41–10.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 0.29–2.22 0.04–2.47 | 1.66 0.81–2.51 0.58–2.74 | 2.92 1.09–4.74 0.61–5.22 | 29% 24% 47% |
| Shots on target | 4.21 2.34–6.07 1.85–6.56 | 4.91 3.17–6.66 2.71–7.12 | 9.12 5.52–12.73 4.56–13.68 | 34% 13% 53% |
| Total shots | 13.19 9.27–17.12 8.17–18.21 | 13.94 10.38–17.50 9.42–18.46 | 27.13 19.65–34.62 17.60–36.67 | 40% 52% |
| Shots in box | 8.08 5.14–11.02 4.31–11.85 | 8.98 6.30–11.66 5.56–12.40 | 17.06 11.44–22.69 9.87–24.25 | 37% 54% |
| Blocked shots | 3.55 1.67–5.43 1.12–5.98 | 4.12 2.47–5.78 1.98–6.27 | 7.67 4.14–11.21 3.10–12.25 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Corners | 4.83 2.62–7.05 2.05–7.62 | 5.39 3.39–7.39 2.85–7.92 | 10.22 6.01–14.43 4.90–15.54 | 37% 51% |
| Possession % | 45.62 38.83–52.41 37.16–54.08 | 55.30 48.51–62.08 46.84–63.76 | — | 26% 70% |
| Passes | 423 356–490 338–509 | 461 394–527 377–545 | 884 750–1018 715–1053 | 38% 62% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.48 60.45–68.51 59.16–69.80 | 72.66 68.34–76.98 67.03–78.29 | — | 13% 84% |
| Fouls | 11.12 8.29–13.96 7.53–14.72 | 12.26 9.32–15.21 8.57–15.96 | 23.39 17.60–29.17 16.10–30.67 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.28–3.20 | 2.18 1.08–3.27 0.80–3.56 | 3.92 1.67–6.17 1.08–6.76 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.65–2.75 0.39–3.02 | 1.98 0.85–3.11 0.56–3.40 | 3.69 1.51–5.86 0.95–6.42 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.27 1.83–4.70 1.44–5.09 | 2.94 1.39–4.50 0.96–4.92 | 6.21 3.22–9.20 2.41–10.02 | 47% 16% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.