Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
27%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.031.372.40safe0.06–2.000.52–2.230.58–4.22safer0.00–2.250.29–2.460.10–4.70
Shots on target
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.864.087.94safe1.99–5.722.34–5.834.33–11.54safer1.50–6.211.88–6.293.38–12.50
Total shots
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8812.2824.16safe7.95–15.808.72–15.8416.67–31.65safer6.86–16.907.76–16.8014.62–33.70
Shots in box
32%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction6.768.0414.79safe3.82–9.705.36–10.729.17–20.42safer2.99–10.534.62–11.457.60–21.98
Blocked shots
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.093.086.17safe1.21–4.971.42–4.732.63–9.70safer0.66–5.520.93–5.221.60–10.74
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.374.349.71safe3.16–7.592.34–6.345.49–13.92safer2.58–8.161.80–6.874.39–15.03
Possession %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction56.4343.35safe49.64–63.2236.57–50.14safer47.97–64.8934.90–51.81
Passes
86%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction483353836safe416–550287–420703–970safer398–568270–437667–1006
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction67.7066.10safe63.67–71.7361.77–70.42safer62.38–73.0360.46–71.73
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4613.8827.34safe10.62–16.3010.93–16.8221.55–33.12safer9.87–17.0510.18–17.5720.05–34.62
Offsides
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.992.324.31safe0.83–3.151.23–3.422.05–6.56safer0.52–3.450.94–3.701.47–7.15
Yellow cards
40%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.352.374.72safe1.31–3.401.24–3.502.54–6.90safer1.04–3.670.95–3.791.99–7.46
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.120.25safe0.00–0.290.00–0.310.00–0.60safer0.00–0.440.00–0.440.00–0.88
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.872.845.71safe1.43–4.301.28–4.392.71–8.70safer1.04–4.690.86–4.821.90–9.51
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.03 0.06–2.00 0.00–2.25 | 1.37 0.52–2.23 0.29–2.46 | 2.40 0.58–4.22 0.10–4.70 | 28% 27% 45% |
| Shots on target | 3.86 1.99–5.72 1.50–6.21 | 4.08 2.34–5.83 1.88–6.29 | 7.94 4.33–11.54 3.38–12.50 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 11.88 7.95–15.80 6.86–16.90 | 12.28 8.72–15.84 7.76–16.80 | 24.16 16.67–31.65 14.62–33.70 | 43% 49% |
| Shots in box | 6.76 3.82–9.70 2.99–10.53 | 8.04 5.36–10.72 4.62–11.45 | 14.79 9.17–20.42 7.60–21.98 | 32% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.09 1.21–4.97 0.66–5.52 | 3.08 1.42–4.73 0.93–5.22 | 6.17 2.63–9.70 1.60–10.74 | 42% 16% 42% |
| Corners | 5.37 3.16–7.59 2.58–8.16 | 4.34 2.34–6.34 1.80–6.87 | 9.71 5.49–13.92 4.39–15.03 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 56.43 49.64–63.22 47.97–64.89 | 43.35 36.57–50.14 34.90–51.81 | — | 76% 20% |
| Passes | 483 416–550 398–568 | 353 287–420 270–437 | 836 703–970 667–1006 | 86% 14% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.70 63.67–71.73 62.38–73.03 | 66.10 61.77–70.42 60.46–71.73 | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 13.46 10.62–16.30 9.87–17.05 | 13.88 10.93–16.82 10.18–17.57 | 27.34 21.55–33.12 20.05–34.62 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.83–3.15 0.52–3.45 | 2.32 1.23–3.42 0.94–3.70 | 4.31 2.05–6.56 1.47–7.15 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 2.35 1.31–3.40 1.04–3.67 | 2.37 1.24–3.50 0.95–3.79 | 4.72 2.54–6.90 1.99–7.46 | 40% 19% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.43–4.30 1.04–4.69 | 2.84 1.28–4.39 0.86–4.82 | 5.71 2.71–8.70 1.90–9.51 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.