La Liga·Regular Season - 23·
La Liga·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
68%
17%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.491.083.58safe1.52–3.460.23–1.941.75–5.40safer1.27–3.710.00–2.171.27–5.88
Shots on target
80%
homeawaytotalprediction6.703.5810.27safe4.84–8.561.83–5.326.67–13.88safer4.35–9.051.37–5.785.71–14.83
Total shots
95%
homeawaytotalprediction17.288.6525.93safe13.36–21.215.08–12.2118.44–33.42safer12.27–22.304.12–13.1716.39–35.47
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction11.806.2518.05safe8.86–14.743.56–8.9312.42–23.67safer8.03–15.572.83–9.6610.86–25.24
Blocked shots
75%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction4.352.126.47safe2.47–6.230.46–3.772.93–10.00safer1.93–6.780.00–4.261.90–11.04
Corners
82%
homeawaytotalprediction6.573.229.79safe4.36–8.781.22–5.225.58–14.00safer3.78–9.360.69–5.754.47–15.11
Possession %
98%
homeawayprediction68.0532.21safe61.26–74.8425.43–39.00safer59.59–76.5123.75–40.67
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction7123551067safe645–780289–421934–1201safer627–798271–439898–1237
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction80.8171.97safe76.78–84.8467.65–76.29safer75.49–86.1466.34–77.60
Fouls
27%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction9.5811.8721.45safe6.74–12.418.92–14.8115.66–27.23safer5.98–13.178.17–15.5614.16–28.73
Offsides
17%
14%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction1.943.665.59safe0.78–3.102.56–4.753.34–7.84safer0.47–3.402.27–5.042.75–8.43
Yellow cards
27%
20%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.572.243.80safe0.52–2.621.11–3.371.63–5.98safer0.25–2.880.82–3.661.07–6.54
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
18%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction2.374.216.58safe0.93–3.802.65–5.773.59–9.57safer0.55–4.192.23–6.192.78–10.38
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.49 1.52–3.46 1.27–3.71 | 1.08 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.17 | 3.58 1.75–5.40 1.27–5.88 | 68% 17% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.70 4.84–8.56 4.35–9.05 | 3.58 1.83–5.32 1.37–5.78 | 10.27 6.67–13.88 5.71–14.83 | 80% |
| Total shots | 17.28 13.36–21.21 12.27–22.30 | 8.65 5.08–12.21 4.12–13.17 | 25.93 18.44–33.42 16.39–35.47 | 95% |
| Shots in box | 11.80 8.86–14.74 8.03–15.57 | 6.25 3.56–8.93 2.83–9.66 | 18.05 12.42–23.67 10.86–25.24 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 4.35 2.47–6.23 1.93–6.78 | 2.12 0.46–3.77 0.00–4.26 | 6.47 2.93–10.00 1.90–11.04 | 75% 14% |
| Corners | 6.57 4.36–8.78 3.78–9.36 | 3.22 1.22–5.22 0.69–5.75 | 9.79 5.58–14.00 4.47–15.11 | 82% |
| Possession % | 68.05 61.26–74.84 59.59–76.51 | 32.21 25.43–39.00 23.75–40.67 | — | 98% |
| Passes | 712 645–780 627–798 | 355 289–421 271–439 | 1067 934–1201 898–1237 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.81 76.78–84.84 75.49–86.14 | 71.97 67.65–76.29 66.34–77.60 | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 9.58 6.74–12.41 5.98–13.17 | 11.87 8.92–14.81 8.17–15.56 | 21.45 15.66–27.23 14.16–28.73 | 27% 65% |
| Offsides | 1.94 0.78–3.10 0.47–3.40 | 3.66 2.56–4.75 2.27–5.04 | 5.59 3.34–7.84 2.75–8.43 | 17% 14% 70% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.52–2.62 0.25–2.88 | 2.24 1.11–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 3.80 1.63–5.98 1.07–6.54 | 27% 20% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.37 0.93–3.80 0.55–4.19 | 4.21 2.65–5.77 2.23–6.19 | 6.58 3.59–9.57 2.78–10.38 | 18% 70% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.