La Liga·Regular Season - 23·
La Liga·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
21%
24%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction0.991.752.74safe0.03–1.960.89–2.600.92–4.56safer0.00–2.210.66–2.830.44–5.04
Shots on target
22%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction3.595.338.92safe1.72–5.453.59–7.085.31–12.52safer1.23–5.943.13–7.544.36–13.48
Total shots
31%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7514.8227.58safe8.83–16.6811.26–18.3920.09–35.06safer7.74–17.7710.30–19.3418.04–37.11
Shots in box
26%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction7.8510.0717.93safe4.91–10.807.39–12.7512.30–23.55safer4.08–11.636.65–13.4910.74–25.12
Blocked shots
30%
13%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction3.614.568.18safe1.73–5.492.91–6.224.64–11.71safer1.19–6.042.42–6.713.60–12.75
Corners
31%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.555.6610.21safe2.34–6.763.66–7.666.00–14.43safer1.76–7.343.13–8.204.89–15.53
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction36.6464.34safe29.85–43.4357.55–71.12safer28.18–45.1055.88–72.79
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction313574887safe246–380507–640753–1020safer227–398490–658717–1056
Pass accuracy %
98%
homeawayprediction61.6677.65safe57.63–65.6973.33–81.98safer56.33–66.9872.02–83.29
Fouls
49%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9013.5527.44safe11.06–16.7410.60–16.4921.66–33.23safer10.30–17.499.85–17.2420.16–34.73
Offsides
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.673.20safe0.36–2.690.58–2.770.95–5.45safer0.06–2.990.29–3.060.36–6.04
Yellow cards
48%
19%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.381.984.36safe1.33–3.430.85–3.112.18–6.54safer1.07–3.700.56–3.401.63–7.10
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.120.26safe0.00–0.300.00–0.310.00–0.61safer0.00–0.450.00–0.440.00–0.89
GK saves
53%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.392.676.07safe1.96–4.831.12–4.233.07–9.06safer1.57–5.220.69–4.652.26–9.87
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.03–1.96 0.00–2.21 | 1.75 0.89–2.60 0.66–2.83 | 2.74 0.92–4.56 0.44–5.04 | 21% 24% 55% |
| Shots on target | 3.59 1.72–5.45 1.23–5.94 | 5.33 3.59–7.08 3.13–7.54 | 8.92 5.31–12.52 4.36–13.48 | 22% 66% |
| Total shots | 12.75 8.83–16.68 7.74–17.77 | 14.82 11.26–18.39 10.30–19.34 | 27.58 20.09–35.06 18.04–37.11 | 31% 62% |
| Shots in box | 7.85 4.91–10.80 4.08–11.63 | 10.07 7.39–12.75 6.65–13.49 | 17.93 12.30–23.55 10.74–25.12 | 26% 66% |
| Blocked shots | 3.61 1.73–5.49 1.19–6.04 | 4.56 2.91–6.22 2.42–6.71 | 8.18 4.64–11.71 3.60–12.75 | 30% 13% 56% |
| Corners | 4.55 2.34–6.76 1.76–7.34 | 5.66 3.66–7.66 3.13–8.20 | 10.21 6.00–14.43 4.89–15.53 | 31% 58% |
| Possession % | 36.64 29.85–43.43 28.18–45.10 | 64.34 57.55–71.12 55.88–72.79 | — | 94% |
| Passes | 313 246–380 227–398 | 574 507–640 490–658 | 887 753–1020 717–1056 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.66 57.63–65.69 56.33–66.98 | 77.65 73.33–81.98 72.02–83.29 | — | 98% |
| Fouls | 13.90 11.06–16.74 10.30–17.49 | 13.55 10.60–16.49 9.85–17.24 | 27.44 21.66–33.23 20.16–34.73 | 49% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.36–2.69 0.06–2.99 | 1.67 0.58–2.77 0.29–3.06 | 3.20 0.95–5.45 0.36–6.04 | 35% 23% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.38 1.33–3.43 1.07–3.70 | 1.98 0.85–3.11 0.56–3.40 | 4.36 2.18–6.54 1.63–7.10 | 48% 19% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% |
| GK saves | 3.39 1.96–4.83 1.57–5.22 | 2.67 1.12–4.23 0.69–4.65 | 6.07 3.07–9.06 2.26–9.87 | 53% 16% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.