La Liga·Regular Season - 25·
La Liga·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
27%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.102.49safe0.41–2.350.25–1.960.66–4.31safer0.16–2.600.02–2.190.18–4.79
Shots on target
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.933.758.68safe3.06–6.792.01–5.495.07–12.28safer2.57–7.281.54–5.964.12–13.24
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction15.9811.7527.73safe12.06–19.918.19–15.3120.24–35.22safer10.97–21.007.23–16.2718.19–37.27
Shots in box
57%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction8.937.6816.61safe5.98–11.875.00–10.3710.99–22.23safer5.15–12.704.27–11.109.42–23.80
Blocked shots
64%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.543.017.55safe2.65–6.421.36–4.664.01–11.08safer2.11–6.960.87–5.162.98–12.12
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction6.234.1910.41safe4.01–8.442.19–6.196.20–14.63safer3.44–9.021.65–6.725.09–15.74
Possession %
84%
14%
homeawayprediction59.0041.40safe52.21–65.7934.62–48.19safer50.54–67.4632.95–49.86
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction512319831safe445–579252–385697–965safer427–597235–403662–1000
Pass accuracy %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction69.4164.62safe65.39–73.4460.29–68.94safer64.09–74.7458.98–70.25
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0413.0626.11safe10.21–15.8810.12–16.0120.33–31.89safer9.45–16.649.37–16.7618.82–33.39
Offsides
39%
24%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.553.16safe0.45–2.770.46–2.650.91–5.41safer0.15–3.070.17–2.930.32–6.00
Yellow cards
36%
20%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.194.15safe0.91–3.011.06–3.311.97–6.33safer0.65–3.280.77–3.611.41–6.88
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.583.375.95safe1.15–4.021.81–4.922.96–8.94safer0.76–4.411.39–5.352.15–9.76
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.41–2.35 0.16–2.60 | 1.10 0.25–1.96 0.02–2.19 | 2.49 0.66–4.31 0.18–4.79 | 43% 27% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.93 3.06–6.79 2.57–7.28 | 3.75 2.01–5.49 1.54–5.96 | 8.68 5.07–12.28 4.12–13.24 | 59% 28% |
| Total shots | 15.98 12.06–19.91 10.97–21.00 | 11.75 8.19–15.31 7.23–16.27 | 27.73 20.24–35.22 18.19–37.27 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 8.93 5.98–11.87 5.15–12.70 | 7.68 5.00–10.37 4.27–11.10 | 16.61 10.99–22.23 9.42–23.80 | 57% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 4.54 2.65–6.42 2.11–6.96 | 3.01 1.36–4.66 0.87–5.16 | 7.55 4.01–11.08 2.98–12.12 | 64% 23% |
| Corners | 6.23 4.01–8.44 3.44–9.02 | 4.19 2.19–6.19 1.65–6.72 | 10.41 6.20–14.63 5.09–15.74 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 59.00 52.21–65.79 50.54–67.46 | 41.40 34.62–48.19 32.95–49.86 | — | 84% 14% |
| Passes | 512 445–579 427–597 | 319 252–385 235–403 | 831 697–965 662–1000 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.41 65.39–73.44 64.09–74.74 | 64.62 60.29–68.94 58.98–70.25 | — | 71% 25% |
| Fouls | 13.04 10.21–15.88 9.45–16.64 | 13.06 10.12–16.01 9.37–16.76 | 26.11 20.33–31.89 18.82–33.39 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.15–3.07 | 1.55 0.46–2.65 0.17–2.93 | 3.16 0.91–5.41 0.32–6.00 | 39% 24% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.91–3.01 0.65–3.28 | 2.19 1.06–3.31 0.77–3.61 | 4.15 1.97–6.33 1.41–6.88 | 36% 20% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.15–4.02 0.76–4.41 | 3.37 1.81–4.92 1.39–5.35 | 5.95 2.96–8.94 2.15–9.76 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.