La Liga·Regular Season - 26·
La Liga·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
26%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.492.67safe0.21–2.140.64–2.350.85–4.49safer0.00–2.400.41–2.580.37–4.97
Shots on target
37%
14%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.974.468.43safe2.11–5.832.72–6.204.82–12.03safer1.62–6.322.25–6.673.87–12.99
Total shots
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8712.6025.47safe8.95–16.809.04–16.1617.99–32.96safer7.86–17.898.08–17.1215.94–35.01
Shots in box
37%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction7.518.3015.81safe4.57–10.455.61–10.9810.18–21.43safer3.74–11.284.88–11.718.62–23.00
Blocked shots
43%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.463.426.87safe1.57–5.341.76–5.073.34–10.41safer1.03–5.881.27–5.562.30–11.44
Corners
42%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.774.859.62safe2.56–6.992.85–6.855.41–13.84safer1.99–7.562.32–7.384.30–14.94
Possession %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction45.1255.89safe38.33–51.9149.10–62.67safer36.66–53.5847.43–64.34
Passes
33%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction438490928safe371–505423–556794–1061safer353–523406–574758–1097
Pass accuracy %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction68.1975.74safe64.16–72.2271.41–80.06safer62.87–73.5270.10–81.37
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4911.9523.44safe8.65–14.329.01–14.8917.65–29.22safer7.89–15.088.26–15.6416.15–30.72
Offsides
30%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.582.043.62safe0.42–2.740.95–3.131.37–5.88safer0.12–3.040.66–3.420.78–6.47
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.913.55safe0.60–2.700.78–3.031.37–5.73safer0.33–2.960.49–3.330.82–6.29
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.19safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
44%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.832.665.50safe1.40–4.271.11–4.222.50–8.49safer1.01–4.660.68–4.641.69–9.30
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.21–2.14 0.00–2.40 | 1.49 0.64–2.35 0.41–2.58 | 2.67 0.85–4.49 0.37–4.97 | 30% 26% 45% |
| Shots on target | 3.97 2.11–5.83 1.62–6.32 | 4.46 2.72–6.20 2.25–6.67 | 8.43 4.82–12.03 3.87–12.99 | 37% 14% 50% |
| Total shots | 12.87 8.95–16.80 7.86–17.89 | 12.60 9.04–16.16 8.08–17.12 | 25.47 17.99–32.96 15.94–35.01 | 48% 44% |
| Shots in box | 7.51 4.57–10.45 3.74–11.28 | 8.30 5.61–10.98 4.88–11.71 | 15.81 10.18–21.43 8.62–23.00 | 37% 53% |
| Blocked shots | 3.46 1.57–5.34 1.03–5.88 | 3.42 1.76–5.07 1.27–5.56 | 6.87 3.34–10.41 2.30–11.44 | 43% 16% 42% |
| Corners | 4.77 2.56–6.99 1.99–7.56 | 4.85 2.85–6.85 2.32–7.38 | 9.62 5.41–13.84 4.30–14.94 | 42% 13% 44% |
| Possession % | 45.12 38.33–51.91 36.66–53.58 | 55.89 49.10–62.67 47.43–64.34 | — | 24% 72% |
| Passes | 438 371–505 353–523 | 490 423–556 406–574 | 928 794–1061 758–1097 | 33% 67% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.19 64.16–72.22 62.87–73.52 | 75.74 71.41–80.06 70.10–81.37 | — | 15% 82% |
| Fouls | 11.49 8.65–14.32 7.89–15.08 | 11.95 9.01–14.89 8.26–15.64 | 23.44 17.65–29.22 16.15–30.72 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.12–3.04 | 2.04 0.95–3.13 0.66–3.42 | 3.62 1.37–5.88 0.78–6.47 | 30% 21% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.60–2.70 0.33–2.96 | 1.91 0.78–3.03 0.49–3.33 | 3.55 1.37–5.73 0.82–6.29 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.83 1.40–4.27 1.01–4.66 | 2.66 1.11–4.22 0.68–4.64 | 5.50 2.50–8.49 1.69–9.30 | 44% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+