La Liga·Regular Season - 28·
La Liga·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
24%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.632.89safe0.30–2.230.77–2.481.07–4.72safer0.05–2.480.54–2.710.59–5.19
Shots on target
33%
13%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.064.908.96safe2.20–5.923.16–6.645.36–12.57safer1.71–6.412.69–7.114.40–13.52
Total shots
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1112.8224.93safe8.19–16.049.26–16.3817.44–32.42safer7.10–17.138.30–17.3415.39–34.47
Shots in box
25%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction7.409.7017.10safe4.46–10.347.02–12.3811.47–22.72safer3.63–11.176.28–13.129.91–24.29
Blocked shots
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.413.466.86safe1.52–5.291.81–5.113.33–10.40safer0.98–5.831.31–5.602.29–11.44
Corners
36%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.525.099.61safe2.31–6.743.09–7.095.40–13.83safer1.74–7.312.55–7.624.29–14.93
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction49.5551.18safe42.76–56.3444.39–57.96safer41.09–58.0142.72–59.63
Passes
45%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction459475934safe392–527408–541800–1068safer374–545391–559765–1103
Pass accuracy %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction66.1473.05safe62.11–70.1768.72–77.37safer60.82–71.4667.41–78.68
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7314.2527.98safe10.89–16.5711.31–17.2022.20–33.76safer10.14–17.3210.56–17.9520.70–35.27
Offsides
14%
14%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction1.533.284.81safe0.37–2.692.19–4.372.55–7.06safer0.07–2.991.90–4.661.96–7.65
Yellow cards
39%
18%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.462.575.03safe1.41–3.511.44–3.702.86–7.21safer1.15–3.781.15–3.992.30–7.77
Red cards
14%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction0.180.150.33safe0.02–0.340.00–0.340.00–0.68safer0.00–0.490.00–0.470.00–0.96
GK saves
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.362.856.22safe1.93–4.801.30–4.413.22–9.21safer1.54–5.190.87–4.832.41–10.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.23 0.05–2.48 | 1.63 0.77–2.48 0.54–2.71 | 2.89 1.07–4.72 0.59–5.19 | 30% 24% 46% |
| Shots on target | 4.06 2.20–5.92 1.71–6.41 | 4.90 3.16–6.64 2.69–7.11 | 8.96 5.36–12.57 4.40–13.52 | 33% 13% 54% |
| Total shots | 12.11 8.19–16.04 7.10–17.13 | 12.82 9.26–16.38 8.30–17.34 | 24.93 17.44–32.42 15.39–34.47 | 40% 52% |
| Shots in box | 7.40 4.46–10.34 3.63–11.17 | 9.70 7.02–12.38 6.28–13.12 | 17.10 11.47–22.72 9.91–24.29 | 25% 67% |
| Blocked shots | 3.41 1.52–5.29 0.98–5.83 | 3.46 1.81–5.11 1.31–5.60 | 6.86 3.33–10.40 2.29–11.44 | 41% 16% 43% |
| Corners | 4.52 2.31–6.74 1.74–7.31 | 5.09 3.09–7.09 2.55–7.62 | 9.61 5.40–13.83 4.29–14.93 | 36% 51% |
| Possession % | 49.55 42.76–56.34 41.09–58.01 | 51.18 44.39–57.96 42.72–59.63 | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 459 392–527 374–545 | 475 408–541 391–559 | 934 800–1068 765–1103 | 45% 55% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.14 62.11–70.17 60.82–71.46 | 73.05 68.72–77.37 67.41–78.68 | — | 17% 80% |
| Fouls | 13.73 10.89–16.57 10.14–17.32 | 14.25 11.31–17.20 10.56–17.95 | 27.98 22.20–33.76 20.70–35.27 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.53 0.37–2.69 0.07–2.99 | 3.28 2.19–4.37 1.90–4.66 | 4.81 2.55–7.06 1.96–7.65 | 14% 14% 72% |
| Yellow cards | 2.46 1.41–3.51 1.15–3.78 | 2.57 1.44–3.70 1.15–3.99 | 5.03 2.86–7.21 2.30–7.77 | 39% 18% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.18 0.02–0.34 0.00–0.49 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.47 | 0.33 0.00–0.68 0.00–0.96 | 14% 74% |
| GK saves | 3.36 1.93–4.80 1.54–5.19 | 2.85 1.30–4.41 0.87–4.83 | 6.22 3.22–9.21 2.41–10.02 | 50% 16% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+