La Liga·Regular Season - 30·
La Liga·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
23%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.193.00safe0.84–2.780.33–2.041.18–4.82safer0.59–3.030.10–2.270.70–5.30
Shots on target
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction6.034.0210.05safe4.17–7.892.27–5.766.44–13.65safer3.68–8.381.81–6.225.49–14.61
Total shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction16.6710.3727.04safe12.75–20.606.80–13.9319.55–34.53safer11.66–21.695.84–14.8917.50–36.58
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.737.1817.91safe7.78–13.674.50–9.8712.29–23.53safer6.96–14.503.77–10.6010.72–25.10
Blocked shots
79%
homeawaytotalprediction4.942.327.25safe3.06–6.820.66–3.973.72–10.79safer2.51–7.360.17–4.462.68–11.83
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.823.839.65safe3.60–8.031.83–5.835.43–13.86safer3.03–8.611.29–6.364.32–14.97
Possession %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction58.2541.68safe51.46–65.0434.90–48.47safer49.79–66.7133.22–50.14
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction5934101003safe525–660343–476869–1136safer507–678326–494833–1172
Pass accuracy %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction75.2270.39safe71.19–79.2566.06–74.71safer69.90–80.5464.75–76.02
Fouls
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4913.2823.77safe7.65–13.3310.34–16.2317.99–29.55safer6.90–14.089.59–16.9716.48–31.06
Offsides
16%
16%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction1.392.884.27safe0.23–2.551.79–3.972.01–6.52safer0.00–2.851.50–4.261.42–7.11
Yellow cards
21%
18%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.462.564.02safe0.41–2.511.43–3.691.84–6.20safer0.14–2.771.14–3.981.28–6.75
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.110.16safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.360.00–0.430.00–0.79
GK saves
22%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.624.086.70safe1.18–4.062.52–5.643.71–9.69safer0.80–4.442.10–6.062.90–10.50
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.81 0.84–2.78 0.59–3.03 | 1.19 0.33–2.04 0.10–2.27 | 3.00 1.18–4.82 0.70–5.30 | 52% 23% 25% |
| Shots on target | 6.03 4.17–7.89 3.68–8.38 | 4.02 2.27–5.76 1.81–6.22 | 10.05 6.44–13.65 5.49–14.61 | 68% 21% |
| Total shots | 16.67 12.75–20.60 11.66–21.69 | 10.37 6.80–13.93 5.84–14.89 | 27.04 19.55–34.53 17.50–36.58 | 87% |
| Shots in box | 10.73 7.78–13.67 6.96–14.50 | 7.18 4.50–9.87 3.77–10.60 | 17.91 12.29–23.53 10.72–25.10 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.94 3.06–6.82 2.51–7.36 | 2.32 0.66–3.97 0.17–4.46 | 7.25 3.72–10.79 2.68–11.83 | 79% |
| Corners | 5.82 3.60–8.03 3.03–8.61 | 3.83 1.83–5.83 1.29–6.36 | 9.65 5.43–13.86 4.32–14.97 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 58.25 51.46–65.04 49.79–66.71 | 41.68 34.90–48.47 33.22–50.14 | — | 82% 15% |
| Passes | 593 525–660 507–678 | 410 343–476 326–494 | 1003 869–1136 833–1172 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.22 71.19–79.25 69.90–80.54 | 70.39 66.06–74.71 64.75–76.02 | — | 71% 25% |
| Fouls | 10.49 7.65–13.33 6.90–14.08 | 13.28 10.34–16.23 9.59–16.97 | 23.77 17.99–29.55 16.48–31.06 | 25% 68% |
| Offsides | 1.39 0.23–2.55 0.00–2.85 | 2.88 1.79–3.97 1.50–4.26 | 4.27 2.01–6.52 1.42–7.11 | 16% 16% 68% |
| Yellow cards | 1.46 0.41–2.51 0.14–2.77 | 2.56 1.43–3.69 1.14–3.98 | 4.02 1.84–6.20 1.28–6.75 | 21% 18% 61% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.18–4.06 0.80–4.44 | 4.08 2.52–5.64 2.10–6.06 | 6.70 3.71–9.69 2.90–10.50 | 22% 14% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.