La Liga·Regular Season - 31·
La Liga·Regular Season - 31·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
24%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.082.77safe0.73–2.660.23–1.930.95–4.60safer0.48–2.910.00–2.160.47–5.08
Shots on target
58%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.033.898.92safe3.17–6.892.15–5.635.32–12.53safer2.68–7.381.68–6.104.36–13.48
Total shots
68%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6411.7726.42safe10.72–18.578.21–15.3318.93–33.90safer9.63–19.667.25–16.2916.88–35.95
Shots in box
75%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction9.706.5316.23safe6.75–12.643.85–9.2110.60–21.85safer5.92–13.473.11–9.959.04–23.42
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.883.307.18safe2.00–5.761.65–4.963.65–10.72safer1.45–6.311.16–5.452.61–11.76
Corners
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.313.879.19safe3.10–7.531.87–5.874.97–13.40safer2.53–8.101.34–6.403.86–14.51
Possession %
49%
47%
homeawayprediction50.1849.72safe43.39–56.9742.93–56.50safer41.72–58.6441.26–58.17
Passes
58%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction492467959safe425–559400–533825–1093safer407–578383–551790–1128
Pass accuracy %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction68.4373.19safe64.40–72.4668.87–77.51safer63.11–73.7667.56–78.82
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7912.1624.95safe9.95–15.629.22–15.1119.16–30.73safer9.19–16.388.47–15.8517.66–32.23
Offsides
77%
homeawaytotalprediction3.381.294.68safe2.22–4.550.20–2.392.42–6.93safer1.92–4.850.00–2.671.83–7.52
Yellow cards
38%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.192.304.49safe1.14–3.241.17–3.432.31–6.67safer0.88–3.510.88–3.721.75–7.23
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.140.25safe0.00–0.260.00–0.330.00–0.59safer0.00–0.410.00–0.460.00–0.88
GK saves
30%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.533.245.76safe1.09–3.961.68–4.792.77–8.76safer0.70–4.351.25–5.221.96–9.57
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 0.73–2.66 0.48–2.91 | 1.08 0.23–1.93 0.00–2.16 | 2.77 0.95–4.60 0.47–5.08 | 52% 24% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.03 3.17–6.89 2.68–7.38 | 3.89 2.15–5.63 1.68–6.10 | 8.92 5.32–12.53 4.36–13.48 | 58% 29% |
| Total shots | 14.64 10.72–18.57 9.63–19.66 | 11.77 8.21–15.33 7.25–16.29 | 26.42 18.93–33.90 16.88–35.95 | 68% 26% |
| Shots in box | 9.70 6.75–12.64 5.92–13.47 | 6.53 3.85–9.21 3.11–9.95 | 16.23 10.60–21.85 9.04–23.42 | 75% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 3.88 2.00–5.76 1.45–6.31 | 3.30 1.65–4.96 1.16–5.45 | 7.18 3.65–10.72 2.61–11.76 | 51% 15% 34% |
| Corners | 5.31 3.10–7.53 2.53–8.10 | 3.87 1.87–5.87 1.34–6.40 | 9.19 4.97–13.40 3.86–14.51 | 62% 26% |
| Possession % | 50.18 43.39–56.97 41.72–58.64 | 49.72 42.93–56.50 41.26–58.17 | — | 49% 47% |
| Passes | 492 425–559 407–578 | 467 400–533 383–551 | 959 825–1093 790–1128 | 58% 41% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.43 64.40–72.46 63.11–73.76 | 73.19 68.87–77.51 67.56–78.82 | — | 25% 71% |
| Fouls | 12.79 9.95–15.62 9.19–16.38 | 12.16 9.22–15.11 8.47–15.85 | 24.95 19.16–30.73 17.66–32.23 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 3.38 2.22–4.55 1.92–4.85 | 1.29 0.20–2.39 0.00–2.67 | 4.68 2.42–6.93 1.83–7.52 | 77% |
| Yellow cards | 2.19 1.14–3.24 0.88–3.51 | 2.30 1.17–3.43 0.88–3.72 | 4.49 2.31–6.67 1.75–7.23 | 38% 19% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.25 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.53 1.09–3.96 0.70–4.35 | 3.24 1.68–4.79 1.25–5.22 | 5.76 2.77–8.76 1.96–9.57 | 30% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.