La Liga·Regular Season - 35·
La Liga·Regular Season - 35·Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
21%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.452.143.59safe0.49–2.421.28–2.991.77–5.41safer0.23–2.671.05–3.221.29–5.89
Shots on target
31%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.966.0511.00safe3.09–6.824.30–7.797.40–14.61safer2.60–7.313.84–8.256.44–15.56
Total shots
15%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5317.5930.12safe8.61–16.4614.03–21.1522.64–37.61safer7.52–17.5513.07–22.1120.58–39.66
Shots in box
23%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction9.1611.9821.14safe6.21–12.109.30–14.6615.52–26.76safer5.39–12.938.57–15.4013.95–28.33
Blocked shots
24%
13%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.034.457.48safe1.15–4.922.79–6.103.94–11.02safer0.61–5.462.30–6.592.91–12.05
Corners
27%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction4.385.8410.21safe2.16–6.593.84–7.846.00–14.43safer1.59–7.173.30–8.374.89–15.53
Possession %
97%
homeawayprediction34.1967.23safe27.40–40.9860.44–74.01safer25.73–42.6558.77–75.68
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction3606761036safe293–427609–742902–1169safer274–445592–760866–1205
Pass accuracy %
98%
homeawayprediction66.1283.17safe62.09–70.1578.84–87.49safer60.80–71.4477.53–88.80
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9911.7222.71safe8.15–13.838.78–14.6716.93–28.49safer7.39–14.588.03–15.4115.42–30.00
Offsides
80%
homeawaytotalprediction4.541.896.42safe3.38–5.700.79–2.984.17–8.68safer3.07–6.000.51–3.273.58–9.27
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.983.90safe0.86–2.960.86–3.111.72–6.07safer0.60–3.230.56–3.411.16–6.63
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
56%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.223.287.49safe2.78–5.651.72–4.834.50–10.49safer2.39–6.041.30–5.263.69–11.30
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.49–2.42 0.23–2.67 | 2.14 1.28–2.99 1.05–3.22 | 3.59 1.77–5.41 1.29–5.89 | 26% 21% 53% |
| Shots on target | 4.96 3.09–6.82 2.60–7.31 | 6.05 4.30–7.79 3.84–8.25 | 11.00 7.40–14.61 6.44–15.56 | 31% 57% |
| Total shots | 12.53 8.61–16.46 7.52–17.55 | 17.59 14.03–21.15 13.07–22.11 | 30.12 22.64–37.61 20.58–39.66 | 15% 80% |
| Shots in box | 9.16 6.21–12.10 5.39–12.93 | 11.98 9.30–14.66 8.57–15.40 | 21.14 15.52–26.76 13.95–28.33 | 23% 69% |
| Blocked shots | 3.03 1.15–4.92 0.61–5.46 | 4.45 2.79–6.10 2.30–6.59 | 7.48 3.94–11.02 2.91–12.05 | 24% 13% 63% |
| Corners | 4.38 2.16–6.59 1.59–7.17 | 5.84 3.84–7.84 3.30–8.37 | 10.21 6.00–14.43 4.89–15.53 | 27% 62% |
| Possession % | 34.19 27.40–40.98 25.73–42.65 | 67.23 60.44–74.01 58.77–75.68 | — | 97% |
| Passes | 360 293–427 274–445 | 676 609–742 592–760 | 1036 902–1169 866–1205 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.12 62.09–70.15 60.80–71.44 | 83.17 78.84–87.49 77.53–88.80 | — | 98% |
| Fouls | 10.99 8.15–13.83 7.39–14.58 | 11.72 8.78–14.67 8.03–15.41 | 22.71 16.93–28.49 15.42–30.00 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 4.54 3.38–5.70 3.07–6.00 | 1.89 0.79–2.98 0.51–3.27 | 6.42 4.17–8.68 3.58–9.27 | 80% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.86–2.96 0.60–3.23 | 1.98 0.86–3.11 0.56–3.41 | 3.90 1.72–6.07 1.16–6.63 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 4.22 2.78–5.65 2.39–6.04 | 3.28 1.72–4.83 1.30–5.26 | 7.49 4.50–10.49 3.69–11.30 | 56% 14% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.