Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
25%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.542.91safe0.40–2.340.69–2.401.09–4.74safer0.15–2.590.46–2.630.61–5.22
Shots on target
38%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.264.698.96safe2.40–6.122.95–6.445.35–12.56safer1.91–6.612.49–6.904.40–13.52
Total shots
35%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3914.9328.32safe9.46–17.3111.37–18.5020.84–35.81safer8.37–18.4010.41–19.4618.78–37.86
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction8.598.5617.15safe5.65–11.545.88–11.2411.53–22.77safer4.82–12.365.14–11.979.96–24.34
Blocked shots
36%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.443.887.32safe1.55–5.322.23–5.543.79–10.86safer1.01–5.861.74–6.032.75–11.89
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.034.739.76safe2.82–7.252.73–6.735.55–13.98safer2.25–7.822.20–7.264.44–15.09
Possession %
31%
64%
homeawayprediction46.7253.96safe39.93–53.5147.18–60.75safer38.26–55.1845.51–62.42
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction422482904safe355–490415–548770–1038safer337–508398–566735–1073
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction64.3673.49safe60.33–68.3969.17–77.82safer59.04–69.6867.86–79.12
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7412.6024.34safe8.90–14.579.66–15.5518.56–30.12safer8.14–15.338.91–16.2917.05–31.63
Offsides
63%
16%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.231.995.22safe2.07–4.390.90–3.082.97–7.48safer1.77–4.700.61–3.372.38–8.07
Yellow cards
41%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.142.104.24safe1.09–3.190.97–3.232.07–6.42safer0.83–3.460.68–3.521.51–6.98
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.120.25safe0.00–0.290.00–0.310.00–0.59safer0.00–0.440.00–0.440.00–0.88
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.932.915.84safe1.50–4.371.35–4.472.85–8.83safer1.11–4.760.93–4.892.04–9.65
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.34 0.15–2.59 | 1.54 0.69–2.40 0.46–2.63 | 2.91 1.09–4.74 0.61–5.22 | 34% 25% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.26 2.40–6.12 1.91–6.61 | 4.69 2.95–6.44 2.49–6.90 | 8.96 5.35–12.56 4.40–13.52 | 38% 13% 49% |
| Total shots | 13.39 9.46–17.31 8.37–18.40 | 14.93 11.37–18.50 10.41–19.46 | 28.32 20.84–35.81 18.78–37.86 | 35% 58% |
| Shots in box | 8.59 5.65–11.54 4.82–12.36 | 8.56 5.88–11.24 5.14–11.97 | 17.15 11.53–22.77 9.96–24.34 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.44 1.55–5.32 1.01–5.86 | 3.88 2.23–5.54 1.74–6.03 | 7.32 3.79–10.86 2.75–11.89 | 36% 15% 49% |
| Corners | 5.03 2.82–7.25 2.25–7.82 | 4.73 2.73–6.73 2.20–7.26 | 9.76 5.55–13.98 4.44–15.09 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 46.72 39.93–53.51 38.26–55.18 | 53.96 47.18–60.75 45.51–62.42 | — | 31% 64% |
| Passes | 422 355–490 337–508 | 482 415–548 398–566 | 904 770–1038 735–1073 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.36 60.33–68.39 59.04–69.68 | 73.49 69.17–77.82 67.86–79.12 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 11.74 8.90–14.57 8.14–15.33 | 12.60 9.66–15.55 8.91–16.29 | 24.34 18.56–30.12 17.05–31.63 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 3.23 2.07–4.39 1.77–4.70 | 1.99 0.90–3.08 0.61–3.37 | 5.22 2.97–7.48 2.38–8.07 | 63% 16% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 2.14 1.09–3.19 0.83–3.46 | 2.10 0.97–3.23 0.68–3.52 | 4.24 2.07–6.42 1.51–6.98 | 41% 20% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.25 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.50–4.37 1.11–4.76 | 2.91 1.35–4.47 0.93–4.89 | 5.84 2.85–8.83 2.04–9.65 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+