La Liga·Regular Season - 38·
La Liga·Regular Season - 38·Predicted match statistics
Goals
22%
22%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.111.882.98safe0.14–2.071.02–2.731.16–4.80safer0.00–2.320.79–2.960.68–5.28
Shots on target
24%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction3.795.419.20safe1.93–5.653.67–7.155.59–12.80safer1.44–6.143.20–7.624.64–13.76
Total shots
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1613.6925.85safe8.23–16.0810.13–17.2518.36–33.33safer7.14–17.179.17–18.2116.31–35.39
Shots in box
26%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction6.828.8015.62safe3.87–9.766.12–11.489.99–21.24safer3.05–10.595.38–12.228.43–22.81
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.383.326.70safe1.50–5.261.67–4.983.17–10.24safer0.95–5.801.18–5.472.13–11.27
Corners
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.515.189.69safe2.29–6.723.18–7.185.48–13.90safer1.72–7.292.65–7.724.37–15.01
Possession %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction44.4356.02safe37.64–51.2249.24–62.81safer35.97–52.8947.57–64.48
Passes
27%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction425498923safe358–492432–565790–1057safer340–511414–582754–1093
Pass accuracy %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction68.6375.02safe64.60–72.6670.69–79.34safer63.31–73.9569.38–80.65
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0012.2223.22safe8.16–13.849.27–15.1617.44–29.00safer7.41–14.598.52–15.9115.93–30.50
Offsides
20%
18%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.412.523.92safe0.25–2.571.42–3.611.67–6.18safer0.00–2.871.13–3.901.08–6.77
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.762.043.80safe0.71–2.810.91–3.171.63–5.98safer0.45–3.080.62–3.461.07–6.54
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
55%
16%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.372.565.93safe1.94–4.811.00–4.112.94–8.92safer1.55–5.200.58–4.542.12–9.73
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 0.14–2.07 0.00–2.32 | 1.88 1.02–2.73 0.79–2.96 | 2.98 1.16–4.80 0.68–5.28 | 22% 22% 55% |
| Shots on target | 3.79 1.93–5.65 1.44–6.14 | 5.41 3.67–7.15 3.20–7.62 | 9.20 5.59–12.80 4.64–13.76 | 24% 64% |
| Total shots | 12.16 8.23–16.08 7.14–17.17 | 13.69 10.13–17.25 9.17–18.21 | 25.85 18.36–33.33 16.31–35.39 | 34% 58% |
| Shots in box | 6.82 3.87–9.76 3.05–10.59 | 8.80 6.12–11.48 5.38–12.22 | 15.62 9.99–21.24 8.43–22.81 | 26% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 1.50–5.26 0.95–5.80 | 3.32 1.67–4.98 1.18–5.47 | 6.70 3.17–10.24 2.13–11.27 | 43% 16% 41% |
| Corners | 4.51 2.29–6.72 1.72–7.29 | 5.18 3.18–7.18 2.65–7.72 | 9.69 5.48–13.90 4.37–15.01 | 35% 52% |
| Possession % | 44.43 37.64–51.22 35.97–52.89 | 56.02 49.24–62.81 47.57–64.48 | — | 23% 73% |
| Passes | 425 358–492 340–511 | 498 432–565 414–582 | 923 790–1057 754–1093 | 27% 73% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.63 64.60–72.66 63.31–73.95 | 75.02 70.69–79.34 69.38–80.65 | — | 19% 78% |
| Fouls | 11.00 8.16–13.84 7.41–14.59 | 12.22 9.27–15.16 8.52–15.91 | 23.22 17.44–29.00 15.93–30.50 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.41 0.25–2.57 0.00–2.87 | 2.52 1.42–3.61 1.13–3.90 | 3.92 1.67–6.18 1.08–6.77 | 20% 18% 62% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.81 0.45–3.08 | 2.04 0.91–3.17 0.62–3.46 | 3.80 1.63–5.98 1.07–6.54 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.37 1.94–4.81 1.55–5.20 | 2.56 1.00–4.11 0.58–4.54 | 5.93 2.94–8.92 2.12–9.73 | 55% 16% 29% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+