Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: H. Osmers
Goals
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction2.830.913.74safe1.87–3.790.05–1.771.92–5.56safer1.61–4.050.00–2.021.41–6.07actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
91%
homeawaytotalprediction8.073.2211.29safe6.22–9.931.51–4.927.72–14.85safer5.72–10.431.04–5.396.76–15.82actual8.000.008.00
Total shots
98%
homeawaytotalprediction20.469.1729.63safe16.75–24.165.80–12.5522.55–36.71safer15.72–25.194.87–13.4820.59–38.68actual14.0010.0024.00
Shots in box
96%
homeawaytotalprediction14.025.7719.79safe11.51–16.543.47–8.0714.97–24.61safer10.64–17.402.67–8.8713.31–26.27actual10.005.0015.00
Blocked shots
81%
homeawaytotalprediction5.422.477.90safe3.84–7.001.06–3.894.90–10.89safer3.30–7.540.57–4.383.88–11.91actual3.002.005.00
Corners
88%
homeawaytotalprediction7.983.5311.51safe5.78–10.191.55–5.517.33–15.69safer5.18–10.781.01–6.046.19–16.83actual7.003.0010.00
Possession %
79%
17%
homeawayprediction56.7642.73safe50.45–63.0836.41–49.05safer48.85–64.6834.82–50.65actual56.0044.00
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction508402910safe443–574338–467780–1040safer425–591320–484745–1075actual5534591012
Pass accuracy %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction84.7080.71safe80.48–88.9176.21–85.22safer79.18–90.2174.87–86.55
Fouls
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction9.6510.9020.55safe6.79–12.517.95–13.8414.74–26.35safer5.91–13.397.03–14.7612.94–28.15actual11.007.0018.00
Offsides
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.863.59safe0.53–2.940.69–3.021.22–5.96safer0.18–3.290.36–3.350.54–6.64actual3.002.005.00
Yellow cards
26%
20%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.492.213.70safe0.43–2.541.09–3.331.52–5.87safer0.16–2.820.80–3.620.96–6.43actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.100.14safe0.00–0.190.00–0.290.00–0.48safer0.00–0.350.00–0.430.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
18%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction2.304.106.40safe0.88–3.712.55–5.653.43–9.37safer0.49–4.102.11–6.092.61–10.19actual0.005.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.83 1.87–3.79 1.61–4.05 | 3.00 | 0.91 0.05–1.77 0.00–2.02 | 0.00 | 3.74 1.92–5.56 1.41–6.07 | 3.00 | 77% 14% |
| Shots on target | 8.07 6.22–9.93 5.72–10.43 | 8.00 | 3.22 1.51–4.92 1.04–5.39 | 0.00 | 11.29 7.72–14.85 6.76–15.82 | 8.00 | 91% |
| Total shots | 20.46 16.75–24.16 15.72–25.19 | 14.00 | 9.17 5.80–12.55 4.87–13.48 | 10.00 | 29.63 22.55–36.71 20.59–38.68 | 24.00 | 98% |
| Shots in box | 14.02 11.51–16.54 10.64–17.40 | 10.00 | 5.77 3.47–8.07 2.67–8.87 | 5.00 | 19.79 14.97–24.61 13.31–26.27 | 15.00 | 96% |
| Blocked shots | 5.42 3.84–7.00 3.30–7.54 | 3.00 | 2.47 1.06–3.89 0.57–4.38 | 2.00 | 7.90 4.90–10.89 3.88–11.91 | 5.00 | 81% |
| Corners | 7.98 5.78–10.19 5.18–10.78 | 7.00 | 3.53 1.55–5.51 1.01–6.04 | 3.00 | 11.51 7.33–15.69 6.19–16.83 | 10.00 | 88% |
| Possession % | 56.76 50.45–63.08 48.85–64.68 | 56.00 | 42.73 36.41–49.05 34.82–50.65 | 44.00 | — | — | 79% 17% |
| Passes | 508 443–574 425–591 | 553 | 402 338–467 320–484 | 459 | 910 780–1040 745–1075 | 1012 | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.70 80.48–88.91 79.18–90.21 | — | 80.71 76.21–85.22 74.87–86.55 | — | — | — | 67% 29% |
| Fouls | 9.65 6.79–12.51 5.91–13.39 | 11.00 | 10.90 7.95–13.84 7.03–14.76 | 7.00 | 20.55 14.74–26.35 12.94–28.15 | 18.00 | 35% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.53–2.94 0.18–3.29 | 3.00 | 1.86 0.69–3.02 0.36–3.35 | 2.00 | 3.59 1.22–5.96 0.54–6.64 | 5.00 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.43–2.54 0.16–2.82 | 1.00 | 2.21 1.09–3.33 0.80–3.62 | 1.00 | 3.70 1.52–5.87 0.96–6.43 | 2.00 | 26% 20% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.30 0.88–3.71 0.49–4.10 | 0.00 | 4.10 2.55–5.65 2.11–6.09 | 5.00 | 6.40 3.43–9.37 2.61–10.19 | 5.00 | 18% 70% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.