Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: F. Badstubner
Goals
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.440.883.32safe1.48–3.400.02–1.741.49–5.14safer1.22–3.660.00–1.980.99–5.64actual5.000.005.00
Shots on target
85%
homeawaytotalprediction7.213.3710.58safe5.35–9.061.66–5.087.01–14.14safer4.85–9.561.20–5.556.05–15.11actual6.004.0010.00
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction18.768.7127.47safe15.06–22.475.33–12.0920.39–34.55safer14.03–23.504.40–13.0218.43–36.52actual19.0010.0029.00
Shots in box
93%
homeawaytotalprediction13.306.3719.67safe10.79–15.824.07–8.6714.86–24.49safer9.92–16.683.28–9.4713.20–26.15actual12.007.0019.00
Blocked shots
75%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction4.812.497.30safe3.23–6.401.08–3.914.30–10.30safer2.69–6.930.59–4.393.28–11.32actual4.002.006.00
Corners
85%
homeawaytotalprediction6.993.2510.24safe4.78–9.191.28–5.236.06–14.43safer4.19–9.790.74–5.774.93–15.56actual8.007.0015.00
Possession %
92%
homeawayprediction61.7438.82safe55.43–68.0632.50–45.14safer53.83–69.6630.90–46.74actual64.0036.00
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction564354918safe498–629290–419788–1048safer481–647272–436753–1083actual622350972
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction81.5367.75safe77.31–85.7463.25–72.26safer76.01–87.0461.92–73.59
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction9.6511.2220.87safe6.80–12.518.27–14.1615.07–26.68safer5.91–13.407.36–15.0813.27–28.48actual11.0013.0024.00
Offsides
28%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.253.88safe0.41–2.831.09–3.421.51–6.25safer0.07–3.180.76–3.750.83–6.93actual0.003.003.00
Yellow cards
24%
23%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.883.05safe0.12–2.230.76–3.000.88–5.23safer0.00–2.500.47–3.290.32–5.79actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.13safe0.00–0.200.00–0.270.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.410.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
77%
homeawaytotalprediction2.034.356.37safe0.61–3.442.79–5.903.40–9.34safer0.22–3.832.36–6.332.58–10.16actual4.001.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.44 1.48–3.40 1.22–3.66 | 5.00 | 0.88 0.02–1.74 0.00–1.98 | 0.00 | 3.32 1.49–5.14 0.99–5.64 | 5.00 | 72% 17% |
| Shots on target | 7.21 5.35–9.06 4.85–9.56 | 6.00 | 3.37 1.66–5.08 1.20–5.55 | 4.00 | 10.58 7.01–14.14 6.05–15.11 | 10.00 | 85% |
| Total shots | 18.76 15.06–22.47 14.03–23.50 | 19.00 | 8.71 5.33–12.09 4.40–13.02 | 10.00 | 27.47 20.39–34.55 18.43–36.52 | 29.00 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 13.30 10.79–15.82 9.92–16.68 | 12.00 | 6.37 4.07–8.67 3.28–9.47 | 7.00 | 19.67 14.86–24.49 13.20–26.15 | 19.00 | 93% |
| Blocked shots | 4.81 3.23–6.40 2.69–6.93 | 4.00 | 2.49 1.08–3.91 0.59–4.39 | 2.00 | 7.30 4.30–10.30 3.28–11.32 | 6.00 | 75% 14% |
| Corners | 6.99 4.78–9.19 4.19–9.79 | 8.00 | 3.25 1.28–5.23 0.74–5.77 | 7.00 | 10.24 6.06–14.43 4.93–15.56 | 15.00 | 85% |
| Possession % | 61.74 55.43–68.06 53.83–69.66 | 64.00 | 38.82 32.50–45.14 30.90–46.74 | 36.00 | — | — | 92% |
| Passes | 564 498–629 481–647 | 622 | 354 290–419 272–436 | 350 | 918 788–1048 753–1083 | 972 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.53 77.31–85.74 76.01–87.04 | — | 67.75 63.25–72.26 61.92–73.59 | — | — | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 9.65 6.80–12.51 5.91–13.40 | 11.00 | 11.22 8.27–14.16 7.36–15.08 | 13.00 | 20.87 15.07–26.68 13.27–28.48 | 24.00 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.41–2.83 0.07–3.18 | 0.00 | 2.25 1.09–3.42 0.76–3.75 | 3.00 | 3.88 1.51–6.25 0.83–6.93 | 3.00 | 28% 20% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 1.18 0.12–2.23 0.00–2.50 | 1.00 | 1.88 0.76–3.00 0.47–3.29 | 2.00 | 3.05 0.88–5.23 0.32–5.79 | 3.00 | 24% 23% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.03 0.61–3.44 0.22–3.83 | 4.00 | 4.35 2.79–5.90 2.36–6.33 | 1.00 | 6.37 3.40–9.34 2.58–10.16 | 5.00 | 77% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+