Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: S. Jablonski
Goals
41%
23%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.613.35safe0.77–2.700.75–2.471.53–5.17safer0.51–2.960.51–2.721.02–5.68actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.394.149.53safe3.53–7.252.43–5.855.97–13.09safer3.04–7.751.96–6.325.00–14.06actual8.005.0013.00
Total shots
76%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction15.7111.5627.27safe12.01–19.418.18–14.9320.19–34.35safer10.98–20.447.25–15.8718.22–36.31actual20.0016.0036.00
Shots in box
77%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction11.767.9619.72safe9.25–14.285.66–10.2614.90–24.54safer8.38–15.144.86–11.0613.24–26.20actual12.0013.0025.00
Blocked shots
68%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.093.248.32safe3.50–6.671.82–4.655.33–11.32safer2.97–7.211.34–5.144.30–12.34actual5.004.009.00
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction6.184.6210.79safe3.97–8.382.64–6.606.61–14.98safer3.38–8.982.10–7.135.48–16.11actual5.007.0012.00
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction49.0151.09safe42.69–55.3344.77–57.41safer41.10–56.9343.17–59.00actual43.0057.00
Passes
42%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction431456887safe366–497391–520757–1017safer349–514374–538722–1052actual381510891
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction78.1378.51safe73.92–82.3574.00–83.01safer72.62–83.6572.67–84.34
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1911.1121.31safe7.33–13.058.17–14.0615.50–27.11safer6.45–13.937.25–14.9813.70–28.91actual15.008.0023.00
Offsides
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.693.28safe0.38–2.800.53–2.850.91–5.65safer0.04–3.140.19–3.180.23–6.33actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
32%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.374.28safe0.86–2.971.25–3.492.11–6.46safer0.59–3.250.96–3.781.55–7.02actual1.000.001.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.13safe0.00–0.200.00–0.280.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.420.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
25%
16%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.193.275.46safe0.78–3.611.71–4.822.49–8.43safer0.39–4.001.28–5.251.67–9.25actual4.006.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.77–2.70 0.51–2.96 | 2.00 | 1.61 0.75–2.47 0.51–2.72 | 1.00 | 3.35 1.53–5.17 1.02–5.68 | 3.00 | 41% 23% 36% |
| Shots on target | 5.39 3.53–7.25 3.04–7.75 | 8.00 | 4.14 2.43–5.85 1.96–6.32 | 5.00 | 9.53 5.97–13.09 5.00–14.06 | 13.00 | 60% 28% |
| Total shots | 15.71 12.01–19.41 10.98–20.44 | 20.00 | 11.56 8.18–14.93 7.25–15.87 | 16.00 | 27.27 20.19–34.35 18.22–36.31 | 36.00 | 76% 19% |
| Shots in box | 11.76 9.25–14.28 8.38–15.14 | 12.00 | 7.96 5.66–10.26 4.86–11.06 | 13.00 | 19.72 14.90–24.54 13.24–26.20 | 25.00 | 77% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 5.09 3.50–6.67 2.97–7.21 | 5.00 | 3.24 1.82–4.65 1.34–5.14 | 4.00 | 8.32 5.33–11.32 4.30–12.34 | 9.00 | 68% 20% |
| Corners | 6.18 3.97–8.38 3.38–8.98 | 5.00 | 4.62 2.64–6.60 2.10–7.13 | 7.00 | 10.79 6.61–14.98 5.48–16.11 | 12.00 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 49.01 42.69–55.33 41.10–56.93 | 43.00 | 51.09 44.77–57.41 43.17–59.00 | 57.00 | — | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 431 366–497 349–514 | 381 | 456 391–520 374–538 | 510 | 887 757–1017 722–1052 | 891 | 42% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.13 73.92–82.35 72.62–83.65 | — | 78.51 74.00–83.01 72.67–84.34 | — | — | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 10.19 7.33–13.05 6.45–13.93 | 15.00 | 11.11 8.17–14.06 7.25–14.98 | 8.00 | 21.31 15.50–27.11 13.70–28.91 | 23.00 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.38–2.80 0.04–3.14 | 2.00 | 1.69 0.53–2.85 0.19–3.18 | 1.00 | 3.28 0.91–5.65 0.23–6.33 | 3.00 | 36% 23% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.86–2.97 0.59–3.25 | 1.00 | 2.37 1.25–3.49 0.96–3.78 | 0.00 | 4.28 2.11–6.46 1.55–7.02 | 1.00 | 32% 20% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.19 0.78–3.61 0.39–4.00 | 4.00 | 3.27 1.71–4.82 1.28–5.25 | 6.00 | 5.46 2.49–8.43 1.67–9.25 | 10.00 | 25% 16% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.