Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: R. Hempel
Goals
67%
17%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.531.163.68safe1.56–3.490.30–2.021.86–5.51safer1.30–3.750.05–2.261.35–6.01actual5.000.005.00
Shots on target
79%
homeawaytotalprediction6.573.4810.05safe4.71–8.421.77–5.186.48–13.61safer4.21–8.921.30–5.655.51–14.58actual9.000.009.00
Total shots
94%
homeawaytotalprediction19.1810.4729.65safe15.47–22.887.09–13.8522.57–36.73safer14.44–23.916.16–14.7820.61–38.69actual19.005.0024.00
Shots in box
94%
homeawaytotalprediction13.616.3820.00safe11.10–16.134.08–8.6815.18–24.81safer10.23–17.003.28–9.4813.52–26.48actual12.004.0016.00
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.662.807.46safe3.07–6.241.39–4.224.46–10.46safer2.54–6.780.90–4.703.44–11.48actual5.003.008.00
Corners
78%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction6.493.5410.03safe4.28–8.691.56–5.525.84–14.21safer3.69–9.291.02–6.064.71–15.34actual6.002.008.00
Possession %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction54.8345.43safe48.51–61.1539.11–51.75safer46.92–62.7437.52–53.35actual60.0040.00
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction506413919safe441–571348–478789–1049safer423–589331–495754–1084actual545338883
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction83.4282.54safe79.20–87.6378.03–87.04safer77.90–88.9476.70–88.37
Fouls
21%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction9.3412.5221.86safe6.48–12.209.57–15.4616.06–27.66safer5.60–13.088.65–16.3814.25–29.46actual7.0016.0023.00
Offsides
30%
26%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.472.62safe0.00–2.360.31–2.630.25–4.99safer0.00–2.700.00–2.970.00–5.67actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
24%
21%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.282.033.31safe0.23–2.340.91–3.151.14–5.49safer0.00–2.610.62–3.440.57–6.05actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.100.12safe0.00–0.180.00–0.290.00–0.47safer0.00–0.330.00–0.430.00–0.77actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
18%
13%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction2.213.896.09safe0.79–3.622.33–5.443.12–9.06safer0.40–4.011.90–5.872.30–9.88actual0.004.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.53 1.56–3.49 1.30–3.75 | 5.00 | 1.16 0.30–2.02 0.05–2.26 | 0.00 | 3.68 1.86–5.51 1.35–6.01 | 5.00 | 67% 17% 16% |
| Shots on target | 6.57 4.71–8.42 4.21–8.92 | 9.00 | 3.48 1.77–5.18 1.30–5.65 | 0.00 | 10.05 6.48–13.61 5.51–14.58 | 9.00 | 79% |
| Total shots | 19.18 15.47–22.88 14.44–23.91 | 19.00 | 10.47 7.09–13.85 6.16–14.78 | 5.00 | 29.65 22.57–36.73 20.61–38.69 | 24.00 | 94% |
| Shots in box | 13.61 11.10–16.13 10.23–17.00 | 12.00 | 6.38 4.08–8.68 3.28–9.48 | 4.00 | 20.00 15.18–24.81 13.52–26.48 | 16.00 | 94% |
| Blocked shots | 4.66 3.07–6.24 2.54–6.78 | 5.00 | 2.80 1.39–4.22 0.90–4.70 | 3.00 | 7.46 4.46–10.46 3.44–11.48 | 8.00 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 6.49 4.28–8.69 3.69–9.29 | 6.00 | 3.54 1.56–5.52 1.02–6.06 | 2.00 | 10.03 5.84–14.21 4.71–15.34 | 8.00 | 78% 13% |
| Possession % | 54.83 48.51–61.15 46.92–62.74 | 60.00 | 45.43 39.11–51.75 37.52–53.35 | 40.00 | — | — | 70% 26% |
| Passes | 506 441–571 423–589 | 545 | 413 348–478 331–495 | 338 | 919 789–1049 754–1084 | 883 | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.42 79.20–87.63 77.90–88.94 | — | 82.54 78.03–87.04 76.70–88.37 | — | — | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 9.34 6.48–12.20 5.60–13.08 | 7.00 | 12.52 9.57–15.46 8.65–16.38 | 16.00 | 21.86 16.06–27.66 14.25–29.46 | 23.00 | 21% 72% |
| Offsides | 1.15 0.00–2.36 0.00–2.70 | 1.00 | 1.47 0.31–2.63 0.00–2.97 | 1.00 | 2.62 0.25–4.99 0.00–5.67 | 2.00 | 30% 26% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.28 0.23–2.34 0.00–2.61 | 1.00 | 2.03 0.91–3.15 0.62–3.44 | 2.00 | 3.31 1.14–5.49 0.57–6.05 | 3.00 | 24% 21% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.33 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 1.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 1.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.21 0.79–3.62 0.40–4.01 | 0.00 | 3.89 2.33–5.44 1.90–5.87 | 4.00 | 6.09 3.12–9.06 2.30–9.88 | 4.00 | 18% 13% 68% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.