Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: D. Siebert
Goals
21%
22%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.051.882.93safe0.09–2.021.02–2.741.11–4.76safer0.00–2.280.77–2.990.60–5.26actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
20%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction3.765.889.64safe1.91–5.624.17–7.586.08–13.20safer1.41–6.123.70–8.055.11–14.17actual5.005.0010.00
Total shots
19%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7915.8527.64safe8.08–15.4912.47–19.2320.55–34.72safer7.05–16.5211.54–20.1618.59–36.68actual8.0030.0038.00
Shots in box
27%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction7.9810.1218.10safe5.47–10.507.82–12.4213.29–22.92safer4.60–11.377.02–13.2211.63–24.58actual5.0021.0026.00
Blocked shots
33%
15%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.323.967.28safe1.74–4.902.54–5.374.28–10.28safer1.20–5.442.06–5.863.26–11.30actual1.0012.0013.00
Corners
31%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.195.239.42safe1.98–6.393.25–7.215.24–13.60safer1.39–6.992.72–7.754.10–14.74actual2.0014.0016.00
Possession %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction41.5557.49safe35.23–47.8751.17–63.81safer33.63–49.4649.57–65.40actual37.0063.00
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction350544894safe284–415480–609764–1024safer267–433462–627729–1059actual351593944
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction74.6983.88safe70.47–78.9179.37–88.39safer69.17–80.2178.04–89.72
Fouls
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction12.529.3621.88safe9.67–15.386.42–12.3116.08–27.69safer8.78–16.275.50–13.2214.28–29.49actual6.0012.0018.00
Offsides
42%
20%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.132.044.18safe0.92–3.340.88–3.211.80–6.55safer0.58–3.680.55–3.541.13–7.22actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.963.94safe0.93–3.040.84–3.081.77–6.12safer0.66–3.320.55–3.371.21–6.68actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
63%
14%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.052.666.71safe2.63–5.461.11–4.223.74–9.68safer2.25–5.850.68–4.652.92–10.50actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.05 0.09–2.02 0.00–2.28 | 2.00 | 1.88 1.02–2.74 0.77–2.99 | 2.00 | 2.93 1.11–4.76 0.60–5.26 | 4.00 | 21% 22% 57% |
| Shots on target | 3.76 1.91–5.62 1.41–6.12 | 5.00 | 5.88 4.17–7.58 3.70–8.05 | 5.00 | 9.64 6.08–13.20 5.11–14.17 | 10.00 | 20% 70% |
| Total shots | 11.79 8.08–15.49 7.05–16.52 | 8.00 | 15.85 12.47–19.23 11.54–20.16 | 30.00 | 27.64 20.55–34.72 18.59–36.68 | 38.00 | 19% 75% |
| Shots in box | 7.98 5.47–10.50 4.60–11.37 | 5.00 | 10.12 7.82–12.42 7.02–13.22 | 21.00 | 18.10 13.29–22.92 11.63–24.58 | 26.00 | 27% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 3.32 1.74–4.90 1.20–5.44 | 1.00 | 3.96 2.54–5.37 2.06–5.86 | 12.00 | 7.28 4.28–10.28 3.26–11.30 | 13.00 | 33% 15% 52% |
| Corners | 4.19 1.98–6.39 1.39–6.99 | 2.00 | 5.23 3.25–7.21 2.72–7.75 | 14.00 | 9.42 5.24–13.60 4.10–14.74 | 16.00 | 31% 57% |
| Possession % | 41.55 35.23–47.87 33.63–49.46 | 37.00 | 57.49 51.17–63.81 49.57–65.40 | 63.00 | — | — | 14% 83% |
| Passes | 350 284–415 267–433 | 351 | 544 480–609 462–627 | 593 | 894 764–1024 729–1059 | 944 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.69 70.47–78.91 69.17–80.21 | — | 83.88 79.37–88.39 78.04–89.72 | — | — | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 12.52 9.67–15.38 8.78–16.27 | 6.00 | 9.36 6.42–12.31 5.50–13.22 | 12.00 | 21.88 16.08–27.69 14.28–29.49 | 18.00 | 72% 22% |
| Offsides | 2.13 0.92–3.34 0.58–3.68 | 0.00 | 2.04 0.88–3.21 0.55–3.54 | 1.00 | 4.18 1.80–6.55 1.13–7.22 | 1.00 | 42% 20% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 0.93–3.04 0.66–3.32 | 1.00 | 1.96 0.84–3.08 0.55–3.37 | 1.00 | 3.94 1.77–6.12 1.21–6.68 | 2.00 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 4.05 2.63–5.46 2.25–5.85 | 3.00 | 2.66 1.11–4.22 0.68–4.65 | 3.00 | 6.71 3.74–9.68 2.92–10.50 | 6.00 | 63% 14% 23% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.