Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: F. Zwayer
Goals
47%
25%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.182.75safe0.61–2.540.32–2.040.93–4.58safer0.35–2.800.07–2.280.42–5.08actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.974.279.24safe3.12–6.832.56–5.985.68–12.81safer2.62–7.332.09–6.454.71–13.77actual5.005.0010.00
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0912.5127.60safe11.39–18.809.13–15.8920.52–34.68safer10.36–19.838.20–16.8218.56–36.64actual18.0011.0029.00
Shots in box
75%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction10.837.5018.32safe8.31–13.345.20–9.8013.51–23.14safer7.44–14.214.40–10.6011.84–24.80actual11.009.0020.00
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.003.157.14safe2.41–5.581.73–4.564.14–10.14safer1.88–6.121.25–5.053.12–11.16actual7.002.009.00
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.414.419.82safe3.20–7.612.44–6.395.64–14.01safer2.61–8.211.90–6.934.51–15.14actual4.005.009.00
Possession %
30%
65%
homeawayprediction45.6552.92safe39.33–51.9746.60–59.23safer37.74–53.5645.00–60.83actual55.0045.00
Passes
27%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction414485899safe349–479421–550769–1029safer331–497403–567734–1064actual478401879
Pass accuracy %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction76.1980.14safe71.98–80.4175.64–84.65safer70.68–81.7174.30–85.98
Fouls
56%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7010.4522.15safe8.84–14.567.51–13.4016.35–27.95safer7.96–15.446.59–14.3114.55–29.76actual11.009.0020.00
Offsides
46%
22%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.553.46safe0.70–3.120.38–2.711.09–5.83safer0.36–3.470.05–3.040.41–6.51actual1.003.004.00
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.094.09safe0.94–3.050.97–3.211.91–6.27safer0.67–3.330.68–3.501.35–6.83actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.080.11safe0.00–0.180.00–0.270.00–0.46safer0.00–0.340.00–0.420.00–0.75actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.583.395.97safe1.16–3.991.84–4.943.00–8.94safer0.77–4.381.40–5.382.18–9.76actual2.004.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 0.61–2.54 0.35–2.80 | 1.00 | 1.18 0.32–2.04 0.07–2.28 | 3.00 | 2.75 0.93–4.58 0.42–5.08 | 4.00 | 47% 25% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.97 3.12–6.83 2.62–7.33 | 5.00 | 4.27 2.56–5.98 2.09–6.45 | 5.00 | 9.24 5.68–12.81 4.71–13.77 | 10.00 | 53% 34% |
| Total shots | 15.09 11.39–18.80 10.36–19.83 | 18.00 | 12.51 9.13–15.89 8.20–16.82 | 11.00 | 27.60 20.52–34.68 18.56–36.64 | 29.00 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 10.83 8.31–13.34 7.44–14.21 | 11.00 | 7.50 5.20–9.80 4.40–10.60 | 9.00 | 18.32 13.51–23.14 11.84–24.80 | 20.00 | 75% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 4.00 2.41–5.58 1.88–6.12 | 7.00 | 3.15 1.73–4.56 1.25–5.05 | 2.00 | 7.14 4.14–10.14 3.12–11.16 | 9.00 | 55% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.41 3.20–7.61 2.61–8.21 | 4.00 | 4.41 2.44–6.39 1.90–6.93 | 5.00 | 9.82 5.64–14.01 4.51–15.14 | 9.00 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 45.65 39.33–51.97 37.74–53.56 | 55.00 | 52.92 46.60–59.23 45.00–60.83 | 45.00 | — | — | 30% 65% |
| Passes | 414 349–479 331–497 | 478 | 485 421–550 403–567 | 401 | 899 769–1029 734–1064 | 879 | 27% 73% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.19 71.98–80.41 70.68–81.71 | — | 80.14 75.64–84.65 74.30–85.98 | — | — | — | 29% 67% |
| Fouls | 11.70 8.84–14.56 7.96–15.44 | 11.00 | 10.45 7.51–13.40 6.59–14.31 | 9.00 | 22.15 16.35–27.95 14.55–29.76 | 20.00 | 56% 35% |
| Offsides | 1.91 0.70–3.12 0.36–3.47 | 1.00 | 1.55 0.38–2.71 0.05–3.04 | 3.00 | 3.46 1.09–5.83 0.41–6.51 | 4.00 | 46% 22% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.94–3.05 0.67–3.33 | 0.00 | 2.09 0.97–3.21 0.68–3.50 | 2.00 | 4.09 1.91–6.27 1.35–6.83 | 2.00 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.75 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.16–3.99 0.77–4.38 | 2.00 | 3.39 1.84–4.94 1.40–5.38 | 4.00 | 5.97 3.00–8.94 2.18–9.76 | 6.00 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+