Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: T. Gerach
Goals
46%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.182.73safe0.59–2.520.32–2.040.91–4.55safer0.33–2.780.07–2.280.40–5.06actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
61%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.963.628.59safe3.11–6.821.92–5.335.02–12.15safer2.61–7.321.45–5.804.05–13.12actual8.0010.0018.00
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8211.4525.28safe10.12–17.538.07–14.8318.19–32.36safer9.09–18.567.14–15.7616.23–34.32actual20.0019.0039.00
Shots in box
54%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction9.348.3617.69safe6.82–11.856.06–10.6612.88–22.51safer5.95–12.725.26–11.4611.21–24.17actual17.0012.0029.00
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.833.217.03safe2.24–5.411.79–4.624.03–10.03safer1.71–5.951.31–5.113.01–11.05actual7.003.0010.00
Corners
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.074.889.95safe2.87–7.282.90–6.865.77–14.13safer2.27–7.872.36–7.394.63–15.27actual4.005.009.00
Possession %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction48.6551.50safe42.34–54.9745.18–57.82safer40.74–56.5743.59–59.42actual66.0034.00
Passes
38%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction421455876safe356–487391–520746–1006safer338–504373–537711–1041actual505265770
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction75.8875.34safe71.66–80.0970.83–79.84safer70.36–81.3969.50–81.17
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction8.819.0917.90safe5.95–11.676.15–12.0412.10–23.70safer5.07–12.555.23–12.9610.30–25.51actual11.0010.0021.00
Offsides
59%
19%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.371.393.75safe1.16–3.570.23–2.551.38–6.13safer0.81–3.920.00–2.880.71–6.80actual3.003.006.00
Yellow cards
39%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.853.70safe0.79–2.900.73–2.971.52–5.88safer0.52–3.180.44–3.260.96–6.44actual3.001.004.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.210.00–0.300.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
37%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.773.095.86safe1.36–4.191.54–4.642.89–8.83safer0.97–4.581.10–5.082.07–9.65actual6.007.0013.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 0.59–2.52 0.33–2.78 | 1.00 | 1.18 0.32–2.04 0.07–2.28 | 3.00 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.40–5.06 | 4.00 | 46% 25% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.96 3.11–6.82 2.61–7.32 | 8.00 | 3.62 1.92–5.33 1.45–5.80 | 10.00 | 8.59 5.02–12.15 4.05–13.12 | 18.00 | 61% 26% |
| Total shots | 13.82 10.12–17.53 9.09–18.56 | 20.00 | 11.45 8.07–14.83 7.14–15.76 | 19.00 | 25.28 18.19–32.36 16.23–34.32 | 39.00 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 9.34 6.82–11.85 5.95–12.72 | 17.00 | 8.36 6.06–10.66 5.26–11.46 | 12.00 | 17.69 12.88–22.51 11.21–24.17 | 29.00 | 54% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.83 2.24–5.41 1.71–5.95 | 7.00 | 3.21 1.79–4.62 1.31–5.11 | 3.00 | 7.03 4.03–10.03 3.01–11.05 | 10.00 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.07 2.87–7.28 2.27–7.87 | 4.00 | 4.88 2.90–6.86 2.36–7.39 | 5.00 | 9.95 5.77–14.13 4.63–15.27 | 9.00 | 46% 41% |
| Possession % | 48.65 42.34–54.97 40.74–56.57 | 66.00 | 51.50 45.18–57.82 43.59–59.42 | 34.00 | — | — | 40% 55% |
| Passes | 421 356–487 338–504 | 505 | 455 391–520 373–537 | 265 | 876 746–1006 711–1041 | 770 | 38% 61% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.88 71.66–80.09 70.36–81.39 | — | 75.34 70.83–79.84 69.50–81.17 | — | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 8.81 5.95–11.67 5.07–12.55 | 11.00 | 9.09 6.15–12.04 5.23–12.96 | 10.00 | 17.90 12.10–23.70 10.30–25.51 | 21.00 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 2.37 1.16–3.57 0.81–3.92 | 3.00 | 1.39 0.23–2.55 0.00–2.88 | 3.00 | 3.75 1.38–6.13 0.71–6.80 | 6.00 | 59% 19% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 0.79–2.90 0.52–3.18 | 3.00 | 1.85 0.73–2.97 0.44–3.26 | 1.00 | 3.70 1.52–5.88 0.96–6.44 | 4.00 | 39% 22% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.77 1.36–4.19 0.97–4.58 | 6.00 | 3.09 1.54–4.64 1.10–5.08 | 7.00 | 5.86 2.89–8.83 2.07–9.65 | 13.00 | 37% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.