Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: F. Exner
Goals
46%
23%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.443.25safe0.84–2.770.58–2.301.43–5.07safer0.58–3.030.34–2.550.92–5.58actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
50%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.914.379.28safe3.05–6.762.67–6.085.72–12.84safer2.55–7.262.20–6.554.75–13.81actual6.005.0011.00
Total shots
70%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction15.8812.5528.43safe12.18–19.599.17–15.9321.35–35.51safer11.15–20.628.24–16.8619.39–37.47actual15.0014.0029.00
Shots in box
67%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction10.407.9918.39safe7.88–12.915.69–10.2913.57–23.20safer7.02–13.784.89–11.0911.91–24.87actual9.0011.0020.00
Blocked shots
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.553.678.22safe2.97–6.142.25–5.085.22–11.22safer2.44–6.671.77–5.574.20–12.24actual6.003.009.00
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.835.0210.85safe3.62–8.043.05–7.006.67–15.04safer3.03–8.632.51–7.545.54–16.17actual8.005.0013.00
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction53.0447.43safe46.72–59.3541.11–53.75safer45.12–60.9539.52–55.35actual47.0053.00
Passes
64%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction487445932safe422–552380–510802–1062safer404–570363–527767–1097actual464530994
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction74.7176.91safe70.50–78.9372.40–81.41safer69.19–80.2371.07–82.74
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction9.3310.9820.31safe6.48–12.198.04–13.9314.51–26.12safer5.59–13.077.12–14.8412.71–27.92actual11.0012.0023.00
Offsides
30%
25%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.552.78safe0.02–2.440.39–2.710.40–5.15safer0.00–2.780.05–3.040.00–5.83actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.204.04safe0.78–2.891.08–3.321.86–6.22safer0.51–3.160.79–3.611.30–6.78actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.070.12safe0.00–0.190.00–0.270.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.410.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.843.446.28safe1.43–4.261.88–4.993.31–9.25safer1.04–4.651.45–5.422.49–10.07actual4.005.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.81 0.84–2.77 0.58–3.03 | 1.00 | 1.44 0.58–2.30 0.34–2.55 | 1.00 | 3.25 1.43–5.07 0.92–5.58 | 2.00 | 46% 23% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.91 3.05–6.76 2.55–7.26 | 6.00 | 4.37 2.67–6.08 2.20–6.55 | 5.00 | 9.28 5.72–12.84 4.75–13.81 | 11.00 | 50% 13% 37% |
| Total shots | 15.88 12.18–19.59 11.15–20.62 | 15.00 | 12.55 9.17–15.93 8.24–16.86 | 14.00 | 28.43 21.35–35.51 19.39–37.47 | 29.00 | 70% 24% |
| Shots in box | 10.40 7.88–12.91 7.02–13.78 | 9.00 | 7.99 5.69–10.29 4.89–11.09 | 11.00 | 18.39 13.57–23.20 11.91–24.87 | 20.00 | 67% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 4.55 2.97–6.14 2.44–6.67 | 6.00 | 3.67 2.25–5.08 1.77–5.57 | 3.00 | 8.22 5.22–11.22 4.20–12.24 | 9.00 | 55% 14% 31% |
| Corners | 5.83 3.62–8.04 3.03–8.63 | 8.00 | 5.02 3.05–7.00 2.51–7.54 | 5.00 | 10.85 6.67–15.04 5.54–16.17 | 13.00 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 53.04 46.72–59.35 45.12–60.95 | 47.00 | 47.43 41.11–53.75 39.52–55.35 | 53.00 | — | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 487 422–552 404–570 | 464 | 445 380–510 363–527 | 530 | 932 802–1062 767–1097 | 994 | 64% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.71 70.50–78.93 69.19–80.23 | — | 76.91 72.40–81.41 71.07–82.74 | — | — | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 9.33 6.48–12.19 5.59–13.07 | 11.00 | 10.98 8.04–13.93 7.12–14.84 | 12.00 | 20.31 14.51–26.12 12.71–27.92 | 23.00 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.23 0.02–2.44 0.00–2.78 | 1.00 | 1.55 0.39–2.71 0.05–3.04 | 1.00 | 2.78 0.40–5.15 0.00–5.83 | 2.00 | 30% 25% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.78–2.89 0.51–3.16 | 2.00 | 2.20 1.08–3.32 0.79–3.61 | 1.00 | 4.04 1.86–6.22 1.30–6.78 | 3.00 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.84 1.43–4.26 1.04–4.65 | 4.00 | 3.44 1.88–4.99 1.45–5.42 | 5.00 | 6.28 3.31–9.25 2.49–10.07 | 9.00 | 33% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.