Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: S. Stegemann
Goals
17%
18%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction1.202.503.69safe0.23–2.161.64–3.361.87–5.52safer0.00–2.421.39–3.611.37–6.02actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
86%
homeawaytotalprediction3.887.9911.87safe2.03–5.746.28–9.708.31–15.44safer1.53–6.245.81–10.177.34–16.40actual1.006.007.00
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1818.2329.41safe7.47–14.8814.85–21.6122.32–36.49safer6.44–15.9113.92–22.5420.36–38.45actual5.0028.0033.00
Shots in box
88%
homeawaytotalprediction7.2313.0620.29safe4.71–9.7510.75–15.3615.47–25.10safer3.85–10.619.96–16.1513.81–26.77actual3.0016.0019.00
Blocked shots
22%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.884.447.32safe1.30–4.463.03–5.854.32–10.32safer0.76–5.002.54–6.343.30–11.34actual1.0012.0013.00
Corners
18%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction3.996.3910.38safe1.78–6.194.41–8.376.19–14.56safer1.19–6.793.87–8.905.06–15.69actual3.009.0012.00
Possession %
95%
homeawayprediction35.9763.02safe29.65–42.2956.70–69.34safer28.06–43.8955.11–70.94actual28.0072.00
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction359638997safe294–425573–702867–1127safer276–442556–720832–1162actual3218231144
Pass accuracy %
13%
84%
homeawayprediction75.7584.15safe71.53–79.9779.64–88.65safer70.23–81.2778.31–89.98
Fouls
49%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction9.819.4519.26safe6.95–12.676.50–12.3913.46–25.06safer6.07–13.555.58–13.3111.65–26.86actual9.008.0017.00
Offsides
28%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.592.213.80safe0.39–2.801.05–3.371.43–6.18safer0.04–3.150.71–3.700.76–6.85actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
40%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.673.42safe0.69–2.810.55–2.791.25–5.60safer0.42–3.080.26–3.080.68–6.16actual2.000.002.00
Red cards
91%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.060.10safe0.00–0.190.00–0.250.00–0.45safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.74actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
73%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction4.692.547.23safe3.27–6.100.99–4.104.26–10.20safer2.88–6.490.56–4.533.44–11.02actual3.000.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 0.23–2.16 0.00–2.42 | 1.00 | 2.50 1.64–3.36 1.39–3.61 | 2.00 | 3.69 1.87–5.52 1.37–6.02 | 3.00 | 17% 18% 66% |
| Shots on target | 3.88 2.03–5.74 1.53–6.24 | 1.00 | 7.99 6.28–9.70 5.81–10.17 | 6.00 | 11.87 8.31–15.44 7.34–16.40 | 7.00 | 86% |
| Total shots | 11.18 7.47–14.88 6.44–15.91 | 5.00 | 18.23 14.85–21.61 13.92–22.54 | 28.00 | 29.41 22.32–36.49 20.36–38.45 | 33.00 | 89% |
| Shots in box | 7.23 4.71–9.75 3.85–10.61 | 3.00 | 13.06 10.75–15.36 9.96–16.15 | 16.00 | 20.29 15.47–25.10 13.81–26.77 | 19.00 | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 2.88 1.30–4.46 0.76–5.00 | 1.00 | 4.44 3.03–5.85 2.54–6.34 | 12.00 | 7.32 4.32–10.32 3.30–11.34 | 13.00 | 22% 65% |
| Corners | 3.99 1.78–6.19 1.19–6.79 | 3.00 | 6.39 4.41–8.37 3.87–8.90 | 9.00 | 10.38 6.19–14.56 5.06–15.69 | 12.00 | 18% 72% |
| Possession % | 35.97 29.65–42.29 28.06–43.89 | 28.00 | 63.02 56.70–69.34 55.11–70.94 | 72.00 | — | — | 95% |
| Passes | 359 294–425 276–442 | 321 | 638 573–702 556–720 | 823 | 997 867–1127 832–1162 | 1144 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.75 71.53–79.97 70.23–81.27 | — | 84.15 79.64–88.65 78.31–89.98 | — | — | — | 13% 84% |
| Fouls | 9.81 6.95–12.67 6.07–13.55 | 9.00 | 9.45 6.50–12.39 5.58–13.31 | 8.00 | 19.26 13.46–25.06 11.65–26.86 | 17.00 | 49% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.39–2.80 0.04–3.15 | 2.00 | 2.21 1.05–3.37 0.71–3.70 | 2.00 | 3.80 1.43–6.18 0.76–6.85 | 4.00 | 28% 20% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.69–2.81 0.42–3.08 | 2.00 | 1.67 0.55–2.79 0.26–3.08 | 0.00 | 3.42 1.25–5.60 0.68–6.16 | 2.00 | 40% 23% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.74 | 0.00 | 91% |
| GK saves | 4.69 3.27–6.10 2.88–6.49 | 3.00 | 2.54 0.99–4.10 0.56–4.53 | 0.00 | 7.23 4.26–10.20 3.44–11.02 | 3.00 | 73% 16% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.