Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: B. Brand
Goals
91%
homeawaytotalprediction4.060.744.80safe3.10–5.030.00–1.602.98–6.62safer2.84–5.290.00–1.842.47–7.13actual7.000.007.00
Shots on target
98%
homeawaytotalprediction10.132.7012.83safe8.27–11.990.99–4.419.27–16.39safer7.77–12.490.53–4.888.30–17.36actual15.002.0017.00
Total shots
100%
homeawaytotalprediction23.816.9630.77safe20.10–27.513.58–10.3423.69–37.85safer19.07–28.542.65–11.2721.73–39.81actual23.003.0026.00
Shots in box
100%
homeawaytotalprediction16.904.5521.45safe14.38–19.422.25–6.8516.63–26.27safer13.52–20.281.45–7.6514.97–27.93actual14.002.0016.00
Blocked shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction6.141.918.05safe4.56–7.720.50–3.335.05–11.05safer4.02–8.260.01–3.814.03–12.07actual5.000.005.00
Corners
98%
homeawaytotalprediction8.842.1410.97safe6.63–11.040.16–4.126.79–15.16safer6.03–11.640.00–4.655.66–16.29actual9.002.0011.00
Possession %
100%
homeawayprediction71.7929.05safe65.47–78.1122.73–35.37safer63.88–79.7021.14–36.97actual68.0032.00
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction7322901022safe667–797225–354892–1152safer649–815208–372857–1187actual638298936
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction85.5965.54safe81.38–89.8161.03–70.04safer80.07–91.1159.70–71.37
Fouls
17%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction7.1110.5817.69safe4.26–9.977.63–13.5211.89–23.49safer3.37–10.856.71–14.4410.08–25.29actual12.009.0021.00
Offsides
42%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.723.60safe0.67–3.090.56–2.881.23–5.97safer0.32–3.430.22–3.210.55–6.65actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
19%
22%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.001.932.92safe0.00–2.050.81–3.050.75–5.10safer0.00–2.320.52–3.340.18–5.66actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.070.12safe0.00–0.200.00–0.270.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.410.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
81%
homeawaytotalprediction2.255.127.37safe0.84–3.673.56–6.674.40–10.34safer0.45–4.063.13–7.103.58–11.16actual2.006.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4.06 3.10–5.03 2.84–5.29 | 7.00 | 0.74 0.00–1.60 0.00–1.84 | 0.00 | 4.80 2.98–6.62 2.47–7.13 | 7.00 | 91% |
| Shots on target | 10.13 8.27–11.99 7.77–12.49 | 15.00 | 2.70 0.99–4.41 0.53–4.88 | 2.00 | 12.83 9.27–16.39 8.30–17.36 | 17.00 | 98% |
| Total shots | 23.81 20.10–27.51 19.07–28.54 | 23.00 | 6.96 3.58–10.34 2.65–11.27 | 3.00 | 30.77 23.69–37.85 21.73–39.81 | 26.00 | 100% |
| Shots in box | 16.90 14.38–19.42 13.52–20.28 | 14.00 | 4.55 2.25–6.85 1.45–7.65 | 2.00 | 21.45 16.63–26.27 14.97–27.93 | 16.00 | 100% |
| Blocked shots | 6.14 4.56–7.72 4.02–8.26 | 5.00 | 1.91 0.50–3.33 0.01–3.81 | 0.00 | 8.05 5.05–11.05 4.03–12.07 | 5.00 | 91% |
| Corners | 8.84 6.63–11.04 6.03–11.64 | 9.00 | 2.14 0.16–4.12 0.00–4.65 | 2.00 | 10.97 6.79–15.16 5.66–16.29 | 11.00 | 98% |
| Possession % | 71.79 65.47–78.11 63.88–79.70 | 68.00 | 29.05 22.73–35.37 21.14–36.97 | 32.00 | — | — | 100% |
| Passes | 732 667–797 649–815 | 638 | 290 225–354 208–372 | 298 | 1022 892–1152 857–1187 | 936 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.59 81.38–89.81 80.07–91.11 | — | 65.54 61.03–70.04 59.70–71.37 | — | — | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 7.11 4.26–9.97 3.37–10.85 | 12.00 | 10.58 7.63–13.52 6.71–14.44 | 9.00 | 17.69 11.89–23.49 10.08–25.29 | 21.00 | 17% 76% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.67–3.09 0.32–3.43 | 2.00 | 1.72 0.56–2.88 0.22–3.21 | 2.00 | 3.60 1.23–5.97 0.55–6.65 | 4.00 | 42% 22% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.00 0.00–2.05 0.00–2.32 | 1.00 | 1.93 0.81–3.05 0.52–3.34 | 3.00 | 2.92 0.75–5.10 0.18–5.66 | 4.00 | 19% 22% 59% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.25 0.84–3.67 0.45–4.06 | 2.00 | 5.12 3.56–6.67 3.13–7.10 | 6.00 | 7.37 4.40–10.34 3.58–11.16 | 8.00 | 81% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+