Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: T. Stieler
Goals
44%
22%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.623.48safe0.90–2.820.76–2.481.66–5.31safer0.64–3.080.52–2.731.16–5.81actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
46%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.084.919.99safe3.22–6.933.21–6.626.43–13.55safer2.72–7.432.74–7.095.46–14.52actual5.002.007.00
Total shots
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3213.0426.36safe9.62–17.029.66–16.4219.28–33.44safer8.58–18.058.73–17.3517.32–35.40actual12.0013.0025.00
Shots in box
56%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction10.048.8718.91safe7.52–12.556.57–11.1714.09–23.72safer6.66–13.425.77–11.9612.43–25.38actual8.0010.0018.00
Blocked shots
46%
15%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.003.797.79safe2.42–5.592.37–5.204.79–10.79safer1.88–6.121.89–5.693.77–11.81actual1.005.006.00
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.134.759.88safe2.92–7.342.77–6.735.69–14.06safer2.33–7.932.23–7.264.56–15.19actual6.002.008.00
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.3845.14safe49.06–61.6938.82–51.46safer47.46–63.2937.22–53.05actual56.0044.00
Passes
86%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction556431988safe491–622367–496858–1118safer473–639349–514823–1153actual542431973
Pass accuracy %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction79.6072.46safe75.38–83.8167.96–76.97safer74.08–85.1166.63–78.30
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2110.9021.11safe7.35–13.067.96–13.8515.31–26.91safer6.47–13.957.04–14.7713.51–28.72actual9.0014.0023.00
Offsides
49%
19%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.401.924.32safe1.19–3.610.75–3.081.95–6.69safer0.85–3.960.42–3.411.27–7.37actual4.001.005.00
Yellow cards
32%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.003.66safe0.60–2.710.88–3.121.48–5.83safer0.32–2.980.59–3.410.92–6.39actual2.005.007.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.12safe0.00–0.190.00–0.270.00–0.46safer0.00–0.340.00–0.420.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.813.035.85safe1.40–4.231.48–4.592.88–8.82safer1.01–4.621.05–5.022.06–9.64actual1.005.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.86 0.90–2.82 0.64–3.08 | 0.00 | 1.62 0.76–2.48 0.52–2.73 | 1.00 | 3.48 1.66–5.31 1.16–5.81 | 1.00 | 44% 22% 34% |
| Shots on target | 5.08 3.22–6.93 2.72–7.43 | 5.00 | 4.91 3.21–6.62 2.74–7.09 | 2.00 | 9.99 6.43–13.55 5.46–14.52 | 7.00 | 46% 42% |
| Total shots | 13.32 9.62–17.02 8.58–18.05 | 12.00 | 13.04 9.66–16.42 8.73–17.35 | 13.00 | 26.36 19.28–33.44 17.32–35.40 | 25.00 | 48% 44% |
| Shots in box | 10.04 7.52–12.55 6.66–13.42 | 8.00 | 8.87 6.57–11.17 5.77–11.96 | 10.00 | 18.91 14.09–23.72 12.43–25.38 | 18.00 | 56% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 4.00 2.42–5.59 1.88–6.12 | 1.00 | 3.79 2.37–5.20 1.89–5.69 | 5.00 | 7.79 4.79–10.79 3.77–11.81 | 6.00 | 46% 15% 40% |
| Corners | 5.13 2.92–7.34 2.33–7.93 | 6.00 | 4.75 2.77–6.73 2.23–7.26 | 2.00 | 9.88 5.69–14.06 4.56–15.19 | 8.00 | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 55.38 49.06–61.69 47.46–63.29 | 56.00 | 45.14 38.82–51.46 37.22–53.05 | 44.00 | — | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 556 491–622 473–639 | 542 | 431 367–496 349–514 | 431 | 988 858–1118 823–1153 | 973 | 86% 14% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.60 75.38–83.81 74.08–85.11 | — | 72.46 67.96–76.97 66.63–78.30 | — | — | — | 80% 17% |
| Fouls | 10.21 7.35–13.06 6.47–13.95 | 9.00 | 10.90 7.96–13.85 7.04–14.77 | 14.00 | 21.11 15.31–26.91 13.51–28.72 | 23.00 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 2.40 1.19–3.61 0.85–3.96 | 4.00 | 1.92 0.75–3.08 0.42–3.41 | 1.00 | 4.32 1.95–6.69 1.27–7.37 | 5.00 | 49% 19% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.60–2.71 0.32–2.98 | 2.00 | 2.00 0.88–3.12 0.59–3.41 | 5.00 | 3.66 1.48–5.83 0.92–6.39 | 7.00 | 32% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.81 1.40–4.23 1.01–4.62 | 1.00 | 3.03 1.48–4.59 1.05–5.02 | 5.00 | 5.85 2.88–8.82 2.06–9.64 | 6.00 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.