Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: S. Storks
Goals
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.683.35safe0.70–2.630.82–2.541.53–5.17safer0.44–2.890.58–2.791.02–5.68actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.234.289.51safe3.37–7.092.57–5.995.95–13.07safer2.88–7.592.10–6.454.98–14.04actual3.007.0010.00
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6312.5027.14safe10.93–18.349.12–15.8820.05–34.22safer9.90–19.378.19–16.8118.09–36.18actual10.0022.0032.00
Shots in box
52%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction9.668.9818.64safe7.14–12.176.68–11.2813.82–23.45safer6.28–13.045.88–12.0812.16–25.12actual9.0017.0026.00
Blocked shots
48%
15%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.983.647.62safe2.40–5.572.22–5.054.62–10.62safer1.86–6.101.73–5.543.60–11.64actual1.003.004.00
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.484.6310.11safe3.27–7.682.65–6.615.92–14.29safer2.68–8.282.11–7.154.79–15.42actual3.005.008.00
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction54.1844.54safe47.86–60.5038.22–50.85safer46.27–62.0936.62–52.45actual40.0060.00
Passes
75%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction470392862safe405–535327–456732–992safer387–553310–474697–1027actual334456790
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction80.0871.14safe75.86–84.2966.63–75.65safer74.56–85.5965.30–76.98
Fouls
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6510.6923.34safe9.80–15.517.74–13.6317.54–29.14safer8.91–16.406.82–14.5515.74–30.95actual12.0011.0023.00
Offsides
51%
22%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.413.40safe0.79–3.210.24–2.571.03–5.77safer0.44–3.550.00–2.900.35–6.45actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.942.033.97safe0.89–3.000.91–3.151.79–6.15safer0.62–3.270.62–3.441.23–6.71actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.123.176.29safe1.70–4.531.61–4.723.32–9.25safer1.31–4.921.18–5.152.50–10.08actual5.001.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.67 0.70–2.63 0.44–2.89 | 2.00 | 1.68 0.82–2.54 0.58–2.79 | 2.00 | 3.35 1.53–5.17 1.02–5.68 | 4.00 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Shots on target | 5.23 3.37–7.09 2.88–7.59 | 3.00 | 4.28 2.57–5.99 2.10–6.45 | 7.00 | 9.51 5.95–13.07 4.98–14.04 | 10.00 | 56% 32% |
| Total shots | 14.63 10.93–18.34 9.90–19.37 | 10.00 | 12.50 9.12–15.88 8.19–16.81 | 22.00 | 27.14 20.05–34.22 18.09–36.18 | 32.00 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 9.66 7.14–12.17 6.28–13.04 | 9.00 | 8.98 6.68–11.28 5.88–12.08 | 17.00 | 18.64 13.82–23.45 12.16–25.12 | 26.00 | 52% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.98 2.40–5.57 1.86–6.10 | 1.00 | 3.64 2.22–5.05 1.73–5.54 | 3.00 | 7.62 4.62–10.62 3.60–11.64 | 4.00 | 48% 15% 38% |
| Corners | 5.48 3.27–7.68 2.68–8.28 | 3.00 | 4.63 2.65–6.61 2.11–7.15 | 5.00 | 10.11 5.92–14.29 4.79–15.42 | 8.00 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 54.18 47.86–60.50 46.27–62.09 | 40.00 | 44.54 38.22–50.85 36.62–52.45 | 60.00 | — | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 470 405–535 387–553 | 334 | 392 327–456 310–474 | 456 | 862 732–992 697–1027 | 790 | 75% 25% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.08 75.86–84.29 74.56–85.59 | — | 71.14 66.63–75.65 65.30–76.98 | — | — | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 12.65 9.80–15.51 8.91–16.40 | 12.00 | 10.69 7.74–13.63 6.82–14.55 | 11.00 | 23.34 17.54–29.14 15.74–30.95 | 23.00 | 62% 30% |
| Offsides | 2.00 0.79–3.21 0.44–3.55 | 1.00 | 1.41 0.24–2.57 0.00–2.90 | 2.00 | 3.40 1.03–5.77 0.35–6.45 | 3.00 | 51% 22% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 0.89–3.00 0.62–3.27 | 2.00 | 2.03 0.91–3.15 0.62–3.44 | 2.00 | 3.97 1.79–6.15 1.23–6.71 | 4.00 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.12 1.70–4.53 1.31–4.92 | 5.00 | 3.17 1.61–4.72 1.18–5.15 | 1.00 | 6.29 3.32–9.25 2.50–10.08 | 6.00 | 41% 16% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+