Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: M. Jollenbeck
Goals
35%
26%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.372.64safe0.31–2.240.51–2.230.82–4.46safer0.05–2.500.26–2.480.31–4.97actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
40%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.835.129.95safe2.98–6.693.41–6.836.39–13.52safer2.48–7.192.94–7.295.42–14.48actual7.005.0012.00
Total shots
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6113.5027.11safe9.90–17.3110.12–16.8820.02–34.19safer8.87–18.349.19–17.8118.06–36.15actual12.0018.0030.00
Shots in box
34%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction8.149.3717.51safe5.62–10.657.07–11.6712.69–22.33safer4.76–11.526.27–12.4711.03–23.99actual7.0012.0019.00
Blocked shots
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.633.807.43safe2.04–5.212.39–5.224.43–10.43safer1.51–5.741.90–5.703.41–11.45actual1.007.008.00
Corners
40%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction5.225.5810.80safe3.01–7.423.61–7.566.62–14.99safer2.42–8.023.07–8.105.49–16.12actual3.005.008.00
Possession %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction46.4152.26safe40.09–52.7345.94–58.58safer38.50–54.3344.34–60.18actual45.0055.00
Passes
30%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction400461860safe334–465396–525731–990safer317–483379–543695–1026actual267566833
Pass accuracy %
40%
56%
homeawayprediction68.6170.23safe64.39–72.8265.73–74.74safer63.09–74.1264.40–76.07
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3111.6622.97safe8.45–14.178.71–14.6017.16–28.77safer7.57–15.057.79–15.5215.36–30.57actual12.0014.0026.00
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.633.45safe0.61–3.030.47–2.791.08–5.82safer0.26–3.370.14–3.130.40–6.50actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.073.82safe0.69–2.810.95–3.191.64–6.00safer0.42–3.080.66–3.481.08–6.56actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.302.786.08safe1.88–4.711.23–4.343.11–9.05safer1.49–5.100.80–4.772.29–9.87actual4.005.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.31–2.24 0.05–2.50 | 2.00 | 1.37 0.51–2.23 0.26–2.48 | 1.00 | 2.64 0.82–4.46 0.31–4.97 | 3.00 | 35% 26% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.83 2.98–6.69 2.48–7.19 | 7.00 | 5.12 3.41–6.83 2.94–7.29 | 5.00 | 9.95 6.39–13.52 5.42–14.48 | 12.00 | 40% 47% |
| Total shots | 13.61 9.90–17.31 8.87–18.34 | 12.00 | 13.50 10.12–16.88 9.19–17.81 | 18.00 | 27.11 20.02–34.19 18.06–36.15 | 30.00 | 47% 45% |
| Shots in box | 8.14 5.62–10.65 4.76–11.52 | 7.00 | 9.37 7.07–11.67 6.27–12.47 | 12.00 | 17.51 12.69–22.33 11.03–23.99 | 19.00 | 34% 57% |
| Blocked shots | 3.63 2.04–5.21 1.51–5.74 | 1.00 | 3.80 2.39–5.22 1.90–5.70 | 7.00 | 7.43 4.43–10.43 3.41–11.45 | 8.00 | 40% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 5.22 3.01–7.42 2.42–8.02 | 3.00 | 5.58 3.61–7.56 3.07–8.10 | 5.00 | 10.80 6.62–14.99 5.49–16.12 | 8.00 | 40% 48% |
| Possession % | 46.41 40.09–52.73 38.50–54.33 | 45.00 | 52.26 45.94–58.58 44.34–60.18 | 55.00 | — | — | 33% 62% |
| Passes | 400 334–465 317–483 | 267 | 461 396–525 379–543 | 566 | 860 731–990 695–1026 | 833 | 30% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.61 64.39–72.82 63.09–74.12 | — | 70.23 65.73–74.74 64.40–76.07 | — | — | — | 40% 56% |
| Fouls | 11.31 8.45–14.17 7.57–15.05 | 12.00 | 11.66 8.71–14.60 7.79–15.52 | 14.00 | 22.97 17.16–28.77 15.36–30.57 | 26.00 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.82 0.61–3.03 0.26–3.37 | 2.00 | 1.63 0.47–2.79 0.14–3.13 | 1.00 | 3.45 1.08–5.82 0.40–6.50 | 3.00 | 43% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.69–2.81 0.42–3.08 | 1.00 | 2.07 0.95–3.19 0.66–3.48 | 3.00 | 3.82 1.64–6.00 1.08–6.56 | 4.00 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.30 1.88–4.71 1.49–5.10 | 4.00 | 2.78 1.23–4.34 0.80–4.77 | 5.00 | 6.08 3.11–9.05 2.29–9.87 | 9.00 | 50% 16% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.