Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: B. Dankert
Goals
44%
24%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.342.95safe0.65–2.580.48–2.201.13–4.77safer0.39–2.840.23–2.440.62–5.28actual3.002.005.00
Shots on target
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.854.3410.19safe4.00–7.712.64–6.056.63–13.76safer3.50–8.212.17–6.525.66–14.73actual11.004.0015.00
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1312.2328.36safe12.43–19.838.85–15.6121.28–35.44safer11.39–20.867.92–16.5419.32–37.40actual20.006.0026.00
Shots in box
73%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction12.158.8721.03safe9.64–14.676.57–11.1716.21–25.84safer8.77–15.535.78–11.9714.55–27.50actual16.004.0020.00
Blocked shots
54%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.383.607.99safe2.80–5.962.19–5.024.99–10.98safer2.26–6.501.70–5.513.97–12.00actual3.001.004.00
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction6.134.3010.43safe3.92–8.342.32–6.286.25–14.61safer3.33–8.931.78–6.825.11–15.75actual2.002.004.00
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.5646.35safe48.24–60.8840.03–52.67safer46.65–62.4738.43–54.27actual59.0041.00
Passes
83%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction517407923safe452–582342–471793–1053safer434–600324–489758–1089actual6833561039
Pass accuracy %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction70.5467.01safe66.32–74.7662.50–71.51safer65.02–76.0661.17–72.84
Fouls
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction8.819.9618.77safe5.95–11.667.02–12.9112.97–24.57safer5.06–12.556.10–13.8311.16–26.38actual10.0011.0021.00
Offsides
54%
21%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.091.363.46safe0.88–3.300.20–2.531.08–5.83safer0.54–3.650.00–2.860.41–6.50actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.672.063.73safe0.61–2.720.94–3.181.55–5.90safer0.34–2.990.65–3.470.99–6.47actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.783.666.44safe1.37–4.192.11–5.223.47–9.41safer0.98–4.581.68–5.652.65–10.23actual2.007.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 0.65–2.58 0.39–2.84 | 3.00 | 1.34 0.48–2.20 0.23–2.44 | 2.00 | 2.95 1.13–4.77 0.62–5.28 | 5.00 | 44% 24% 32% |
| Shots on target | 5.85 4.00–7.71 3.50–8.21 | 11.00 | 4.34 2.64–6.05 2.17–6.52 | 4.00 | 10.19 6.63–13.76 5.66–14.73 | 15.00 | 62% 26% |
| Total shots | 16.13 12.43–19.83 11.39–20.86 | 20.00 | 12.23 8.85–15.61 7.92–16.54 | 6.00 | 28.36 21.28–35.44 19.32–37.40 | 26.00 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 12.15 9.64–14.67 8.77–15.53 | 16.00 | 8.87 6.57–11.17 5.78–11.97 | 4.00 | 21.03 16.21–25.84 14.55–27.50 | 20.00 | 73% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 4.38 2.80–5.96 2.26–6.50 | 3.00 | 3.60 2.19–5.02 1.70–5.51 | 1.00 | 7.99 4.99–10.98 3.97–12.00 | 4.00 | 54% 14% 32% |
| Corners | 6.13 3.92–8.34 3.33–8.93 | 2.00 | 4.30 2.32–6.28 1.78–6.82 | 2.00 | 10.43 6.25–14.61 5.11–15.75 | 4.00 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 54.56 48.24–60.88 46.65–62.47 | 59.00 | 46.35 40.03–52.67 38.43–54.27 | 41.00 | — | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 517 452–582 434–600 | 683 | 407 342–471 324–489 | 356 | 923 793–1053 758–1089 | 1039 | 83% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.54 66.32–74.76 65.02–76.06 | — | 67.01 62.50–71.51 61.17–72.84 | — | — | — | 65% 31% |
| Fouls | 8.81 5.95–11.66 5.06–12.55 | 10.00 | 9.96 7.02–12.91 6.10–13.83 | 11.00 | 18.77 12.97–24.57 11.16–26.38 | 21.00 | 35% 56% |
| Offsides | 2.09 0.88–3.30 0.54–3.65 | 2.00 | 1.36 0.20–2.53 0.00–2.86 | 1.00 | 3.46 1.08–5.83 0.41–6.50 | 3.00 | 54% 21% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 0.61–2.72 0.34–2.99 | 2.00 | 2.06 0.94–3.18 0.65–3.47 | 2.00 | 3.73 1.55–5.90 0.99–6.47 | 4.00 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.37–4.19 0.98–4.58 | 2.00 | 3.66 2.11–5.22 1.68–5.65 | 7.00 | 6.44 3.47–9.41 2.65–10.23 | 9.00 | 29% 15% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.