Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: R. Braun
Goals
41%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.643.37safe0.77–2.700.78–2.501.55–5.19safer0.51–2.960.53–2.741.04–5.70actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.215.2710.48safe3.35–7.073.56–6.986.92–14.04safer2.85–7.563.09–7.445.95–15.01actual1.001.002.00
Total shots
50%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0713.5827.64safe10.36–17.7710.20–16.9520.56–34.72safer9.33–18.809.27–17.8818.60–36.68actual13.0011.0024.00
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction11.148.4419.58safe8.62–13.666.14–10.7414.76–24.40safer7.76–14.525.34–11.5413.10–26.06actual11.006.0017.00
Blocked shots
60%
13%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.543.317.85safe2.96–6.121.90–4.724.85–10.85safer2.42–6.661.41–5.213.83–11.87actual7.006.0013.00
Corners
51%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.695.1310.82safe3.48–7.893.16–7.116.64–15.01safer2.89–8.492.62–7.655.51–16.14actual4.004.008.00
Possession %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction49.4851.32safe43.17–55.8045.00–57.64safer41.57–57.4043.40–59.23actual40.0060.00
Passes
52%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction458452910safe392–523387–516780–1040safer375–541370–534745–1075actual361540901
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction67.4270.41safe63.21–71.6465.91–74.92safer61.91–72.9464.57–76.25
Fouls
38%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5211.4321.95safe7.67–13.388.49–14.3816.15–27.76safer6.78–14.267.57–15.2914.35–29.56actual10.0010.0020.00
Offsides
52%
21%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.503.61safe0.90–3.320.34–2.661.24–5.98safer0.56–3.670.00–2.990.56–6.66actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
29%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.283.97safe0.64–2.751.16–3.401.80–6.15safer0.36–3.020.87–3.691.23–6.71actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
43%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.353.326.68safe1.94–4.771.77–4.883.71–9.64safer1.55–5.161.34–5.312.89–10.47actual1.002.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.74 0.77–2.70 0.51–2.96 | 0.00 | 1.64 0.78–2.50 0.53–2.74 | 0.00 | 3.37 1.55–5.19 1.04–5.70 | 0.00 | 41% 23% 37% |
| Shots on target | 5.21 3.35–7.07 2.85–7.56 | 1.00 | 5.27 3.56–6.98 3.09–7.44 | 1.00 | 10.48 6.92–14.04 5.95–15.01 | 2.00 | 43% 44% |
| Total shots | 14.07 10.36–17.77 9.33–18.80 | 13.00 | 13.58 10.20–16.95 9.27–17.88 | 11.00 | 27.64 20.56–34.72 18.60–36.68 | 24.00 | 50% 43% |
| Shots in box | 11.14 8.62–13.66 7.76–14.52 | 11.00 | 8.44 6.14–10.74 5.34–11.54 | 6.00 | 19.58 14.76–24.40 13.10–26.06 | 17.00 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 4.54 2.96–6.12 2.42–6.66 | 7.00 | 3.31 1.90–4.72 1.41–5.21 | 6.00 | 7.85 4.85–10.85 3.83–11.87 | 13.00 | 60% 13% 27% |
| Corners | 5.69 3.48–7.89 2.89–8.49 | 4.00 | 5.13 3.16–7.11 2.62–7.65 | 4.00 | 10.82 6.64–15.01 5.51–16.14 | 8.00 | 51% 37% |
| Possession % | 49.48 43.17–55.80 41.57–57.40 | 40.00 | 51.32 45.00–57.64 43.40–59.23 | 60.00 | — | — | 43% 52% |
| Passes | 458 392–523 375–541 | 361 | 452 387–516 370–534 | 540 | 910 780–1040 745–1075 | 901 | 52% 48% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.42 63.21–71.64 61.91–72.94 | — | 70.41 65.91–74.92 64.57–76.25 | — | — | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 10.52 7.67–13.38 6.78–14.26 | 10.00 | 11.43 8.49–14.38 7.57–15.29 | 10.00 | 21.95 16.15–27.76 14.35–29.56 | 20.00 | 38% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.11 0.90–3.32 0.56–3.67 | 2.00 | 1.50 0.34–2.66 0.00–2.99 | 2.00 | 3.61 1.24–5.98 0.56–6.66 | 4.00 | 52% 21% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.75 0.36–3.02 | 1.00 | 2.28 1.16–3.40 0.87–3.69 | 2.00 | 3.97 1.80–6.15 1.23–6.71 | 3.00 | 29% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.35 1.94–4.77 1.55–5.16 | 1.00 | 3.32 1.77–4.88 1.34–5.31 | 2.00 | 6.68 3.71–9.64 2.89–10.47 | 3.00 | 43% 16% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.