Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: R. Hartmann
Goals
26%
24%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.652.77safe0.17–2.090.79–2.510.95–4.60safer0.00–2.350.54–2.750.45–5.10actual3.004.007.00
Shots on target
20%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction3.385.328.70safe1.53–5.243.61–7.025.13–12.26safer1.03–5.743.14–7.494.17–13.23actual7.008.0015.00
Total shots
14%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3215.2425.57safe6.62–14.0311.86–18.6218.48–32.65safer5.59–15.0610.93–19.5516.52–34.61actual21.0017.0038.00
Shots in box
23%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction7.7410.3018.04safe5.22–10.258.00–12.6113.22–22.86safer4.36–11.127.21–13.4011.56–24.52actual15.0015.0030.00
Blocked shots
39%
15%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.383.627.00safe1.80–4.972.21–5.034.01–10.00safer1.27–5.501.72–5.522.99–11.02actual7.002.009.00
Corners
32%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.405.339.73safe2.19–6.603.35–7.315.54–13.91safer1.60–7.202.82–7.854.41–15.04actual6.004.0010.00
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction50.0849.50safe43.77–56.4043.18–55.82safer42.17–58.0041.59–57.42actual47.0053.00
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction429418847safe364–494353–482717–977safer346–512336–500682–1012actual422480902
Pass accuracy %
34%
62%
homeawayprediction69.2972.16safe65.07–73.5067.66–76.67safer63.77–74.8066.33–78.00
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2811.3721.64safe7.42–13.138.42–14.3115.84–27.44safer6.53–14.027.50–15.2314.04–29.25actual12.0014.0026.00
Offsides
55%
20%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.331.553.88safe1.12–3.540.38–2.711.50–6.25safer0.78–3.880.05–3.040.83–6.92actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.863.62safe0.71–2.820.74–2.981.45–5.80safer0.44–3.090.45–3.270.88–6.36actual6.005.0011.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
68%
13%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.022.326.34safe2.60–5.430.77–3.883.37–9.31safer2.21–5.820.34–4.312.55–10.13actual4.004.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 0.17–2.09 0.00–2.35 | 3.00 | 1.65 0.79–2.51 0.54–2.75 | 4.00 | 2.77 0.95–4.60 0.45–5.10 | 7.00 | 26% 24% 49% |
| Shots on target | 3.38 1.53–5.24 1.03–5.74 | 7.00 | 5.32 3.61–7.02 3.14–7.49 | 8.00 | 8.70 5.13–12.26 4.17–13.23 | 15.00 | 20% 69% |
| Total shots | 10.32 6.62–14.03 5.59–15.06 | 21.00 | 15.24 11.86–18.62 10.93–19.55 | 17.00 | 25.57 18.48–32.65 16.52–34.61 | 38.00 | 14% 81% |
| Shots in box | 7.74 5.22–10.25 4.36–11.12 | 15.00 | 10.30 8.00–12.61 7.21–13.40 | 15.00 | 18.04 13.22–22.86 11.56–24.52 | 30.00 | 23% 69% |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 1.80–4.97 1.27–5.50 | 7.00 | 3.62 2.21–5.03 1.72–5.52 | 2.00 | 7.00 4.01–10.00 2.99–11.02 | 9.00 | 39% 15% 46% |
| Corners | 4.40 2.19–6.60 1.60–7.20 | 6.00 | 5.33 3.35–7.31 2.82–7.85 | 4.00 | 9.73 5.54–13.91 4.41–15.04 | 10.00 | 32% 55% |
| Possession % | 50.08 43.77–56.40 42.17–58.00 | 47.00 | 49.50 43.18–55.82 41.59–57.42 | 53.00 | — | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 429 364–494 346–512 | 422 | 418 353–482 336–500 | 480 | 847 717–977 682–1012 | 902 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.29 65.07–73.50 63.77–74.80 | — | 72.16 67.66–76.67 66.33–78.00 | — | — | — | 34% 62% |
| Fouls | 10.28 7.42–13.13 6.53–14.02 | 12.00 | 11.37 8.42–14.31 7.50–15.23 | 14.00 | 21.64 15.84–27.44 14.04–29.25 | 26.00 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 2.33 1.12–3.54 0.78–3.88 | 0.00 | 1.55 0.38–2.71 0.05–3.04 | 2.00 | 3.88 1.50–6.25 0.83–6.92 | 2.00 | 55% 20% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.71–2.82 0.44–3.09 | 6.00 | 1.86 0.74–2.98 0.45–3.27 | 5.00 | 3.62 1.45–5.80 0.88–6.36 | 11.00 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 4.02 2.60–5.43 2.21–5.82 | 4.00 | 2.32 0.77–3.88 0.34–4.31 | 4.00 | 6.34 3.37–9.31 2.55–10.13 | 8.00 | 68% 13% 19% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+