Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: D. Schlager
Goals
25%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.502.283.78safe0.54–2.461.42–3.141.95–5.60safer0.28–2.721.17–3.381.45–6.10actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
31%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.805.8810.68safe2.94–6.664.18–7.597.12–14.25safer2.45–7.163.71–8.066.15–15.21actual5.002.007.00
Total shots
30%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8116.2030.01safe10.11–17.5112.82–19.5822.93–37.09safer9.07–18.5411.89–20.5120.97–39.05actual13.0022.0035.00
Shots in box
20%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction8.7412.0520.79safe6.22–11.259.75–14.3615.97–25.61safer5.35–12.128.96–15.1514.31–27.27actual7.0015.0022.00
Blocked shots
30%
13%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.544.558.09safe1.96–5.133.13–5.965.09–11.09safer1.42–5.662.64–6.454.07–12.11actual5.0012.0017.00
Corners
37%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction5.275.8711.14safe3.07–7.483.89–7.846.95–15.32safer2.47–8.073.35–8.385.82–16.45actual6.005.0011.00
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction51.5349.11safe45.21–57.8542.79–55.43safer43.62–59.4441.20–57.03actual34.0066.00
Passes
49%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction420421841safe354–485357–486711–971safer337–503339–503676–1006actual324636960
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction70.1574.65safe65.93–74.3670.14–79.16safer64.63–75.6768.81–80.49
Fouls
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4213.0923.50safe7.56–13.2710.14–16.0317.70–29.31safer6.67–14.169.22–16.9515.90–31.11actual6.0014.0020.00
Offsides
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.923.41safe0.28–2.700.76–3.081.04–5.78safer0.00–3.050.42–3.410.36–6.46actual1.003.004.00
Yellow cards
30%
19%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.454.35safe0.85–2.961.33–3.572.18–6.53safer0.58–3.231.04–3.861.61–7.09actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.612.976.57safe2.19–5.021.41–4.523.60–9.54safer1.80–5.410.98–4.952.78–10.36actual1.002.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.54–2.46 0.28–2.72 | 3.00 | 2.28 1.42–3.14 1.17–3.38 | 1.00 | 3.78 1.95–5.60 1.45–6.10 | 4.00 | 25% 20% 55% |
| Shots on target | 4.80 2.94–6.66 2.45–7.16 | 5.00 | 5.88 4.18–7.59 3.71–8.06 | 2.00 | 10.68 7.12–14.25 6.15–15.21 | 7.00 | 31% 57% |
| Total shots | 13.81 10.11–17.51 9.07–18.54 | 13.00 | 16.20 12.82–19.58 11.89–20.51 | 22.00 | 30.01 22.93–37.09 20.97–39.05 | 35.00 | 30% 64% |
| Shots in box | 8.74 6.22–11.25 5.35–12.12 | 7.00 | 12.05 9.75–14.36 8.96–15.15 | 15.00 | 20.79 15.97–25.61 14.31–27.27 | 22.00 | 20% 73% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.96–5.13 1.42–5.66 | 5.00 | 4.55 3.13–5.96 2.64–6.45 | 12.00 | 8.09 5.09–11.09 4.07–12.11 | 17.00 | 30% 13% 57% |
| Corners | 5.27 3.07–7.48 2.47–8.07 | 6.00 | 5.87 3.89–7.84 3.35–8.38 | 5.00 | 11.14 6.95–15.32 5.82–16.45 | 11.00 | 37% 51% |
| Possession % | 51.53 45.21–57.85 43.62–59.44 | 34.00 | 49.11 42.79–55.43 41.20–57.03 | 66.00 | — | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 420 354–485 337–503 | 324 | 421 357–486 339–503 | 636 | 841 711–971 676–1006 | 960 | 49% 50% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.15 65.93–74.36 64.63–75.67 | — | 74.65 70.14–79.16 68.81–80.49 | — | — | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 10.42 7.56–13.27 6.67–14.16 | 6.00 | 13.09 10.14–16.03 9.22–16.95 | 14.00 | 23.50 17.70–29.31 15.90–31.11 | 20.00 | 26% 67% |
| Offsides | 1.49 0.28–2.70 0.00–3.05 | 1.00 | 1.92 0.76–3.08 0.42–3.41 | 3.00 | 3.41 1.04–5.78 0.36–6.46 | 4.00 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.85–2.96 0.58–3.23 | 0.00 | 2.45 1.33–3.57 1.04–3.86 | 1.00 | 4.35 2.18–6.53 1.61–7.09 | 1.00 | 30% 19% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.61 2.19–5.02 1.80–5.41 | 1.00 | 2.97 1.41–4.52 0.98–4.95 | 2.00 | 6.57 3.60–9.54 2.78–10.36 | 3.00 | 52% 15% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+