Bundesliga·Regular Season - 5·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
24%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.702.87safe0.20–2.140.84–2.551.04–4.69safer0.00–2.390.61–2.780.56–5.17
Shots on target
29%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction4.115.289.39safe2.25–5.973.53–7.025.78–12.99safer1.76–6.463.07–7.484.82–13.95
Total shots
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4914.0926.57safe8.56–16.4110.52–17.6519.08–34.06safer7.47–17.509.56–18.6117.03–36.11
Shots in box
39%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction8.509.1217.63safe5.56–11.456.44–11.8012.00–23.25safer4.73–12.275.70–12.5410.44–24.82
Blocked shots
29%
14%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.124.087.20safe1.24–5.002.43–5.733.67–10.74safer0.70–5.551.93–6.222.63–11.77
Corners
32%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction4.405.359.75safe2.19–6.613.35–7.355.54–13.96safer1.61–7.192.82–7.884.43–15.07
Possession %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction42.7058.64safe35.91–49.4951.86–65.43safer34.24–51.1650.19–67.10
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction373535908safe306–440469–602774–1042safer288–458451–619739–1077
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction68.4377.55safe64.40–72.4673.23–81.88safer63.11–73.7571.92–83.19
Fouls
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5710.6523.22safe9.73–15.417.70–13.5917.43–29.00safer8.98–16.166.95–14.3415.93–30.50
Offsides
41%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.553.23safe0.52–2.840.45–2.640.98–5.48safer0.22–3.150.17–2.930.39–6.07
Yellow cards
37%
19%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.122.324.44safe1.07–3.171.19–3.452.26–6.62safer0.80–3.430.90–3.741.70–7.17
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.052.875.91safe1.61–4.481.31–4.422.92–8.91safer1.22–4.870.89–4.852.11–9.72
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.20–2.14 0.00–2.39 | 1.70 0.84–2.55 0.61–2.78 | 2.87 1.04–4.69 0.56–5.17 | 26% 24% 50% |
| Shots on target | 4.11 2.25–5.97 1.76–6.46 | 5.28 3.53–7.02 3.07–7.48 | 9.39 5.78–12.99 4.82–13.95 | 29% 59% |
| Total shots | 12.49 8.56–16.41 7.47–17.50 | 14.09 10.52–17.65 9.56–18.61 | 26.57 19.08–34.06 17.03–36.11 | 34% 58% |
| Shots in box | 8.50 5.56–11.45 4.73–12.27 | 9.12 6.44–11.80 5.70–12.54 | 17.63 12.00–23.25 10.44–24.82 | 39% 51% |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 1.24–5.00 0.70–5.55 | 4.08 2.43–5.73 1.93–6.22 | 7.20 3.67–10.74 2.63–11.77 | 29% 14% 57% |
| Corners | 4.40 2.19–6.61 1.61–7.19 | 5.35 3.35–7.35 2.82–7.88 | 9.75 5.54–13.96 4.43–15.07 | 32% 56% |
| Possession % | 42.70 35.91–49.49 34.24–51.16 | 58.64 51.86–65.43 50.19–67.10 | — | 16% 81% |
| Passes | 373 306–440 288–458 | 535 469–602 451–619 | 908 774–1042 739–1077 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.43 64.40–72.46 63.11–73.75 | 77.55 73.23–81.88 71.92–83.19 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 12.57 9.73–15.41 8.98–16.16 | 10.65 7.70–13.59 6.95–14.34 | 23.22 17.43–29.00 15.93–30.50 | 62% 31% |
| Offsides | 1.68 0.52–2.84 0.22–3.15 | 1.55 0.45–2.64 0.17–2.93 | 3.23 0.98–5.48 0.39–6.07 | 41% 23% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.12 1.07–3.17 0.80–3.43 | 2.32 1.19–3.45 0.90–3.74 | 4.44 2.26–6.62 1.70–7.17 | 37% 19% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.05 1.61–4.48 1.22–4.87 | 2.87 1.31–4.42 0.89–4.85 | 5.91 2.92–8.91 2.11–9.72 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.