Bundesliga·Regular Season - 8·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.703.28safe0.61–2.540.85–2.551.45–5.10safer0.36–2.800.62–2.780.97–5.58
Shots on target
34%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.845.6610.50safe2.98–6.703.92–7.406.90–14.11safer2.49–7.193.45–7.875.94–15.06
Total shots
44%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5914.9329.53safe10.67–18.5211.37–18.4922.04–37.01safer9.58–19.6110.41–19.4519.99–39.06
Shots in box
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction9.8510.4120.26safe6.91–12.797.73–13.0914.63–25.88safer6.08–13.626.99–13.8313.07–27.45
Blocked shots
39%
15%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.703.977.68safe1.82–5.582.32–5.634.14–11.21safer1.27–6.131.83–6.123.10–12.25
Corners
47%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.375.1110.48safe3.16–7.583.11–7.116.27–14.70safer2.58–8.162.58–7.655.16–15.80
Possession %
59%
37%
homeawayprediction52.9648.24safe46.17–59.7541.45–55.02safer44.50–61.4239.78–56.69
Passes
64%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction476434910safe409–543368–501777–1044safer391–561350–518741–1080
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction69.1672.88safe65.13–73.1868.55–77.20safer63.83–74.4867.24–78.51
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5413.1824.73safe8.70–14.3810.24–16.1318.94–30.51safer7.95–15.139.49–16.8817.44–32.01
Offsides
40%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.593.25safe0.50–2.820.50–2.691.00–5.51safer0.20–3.120.21–2.970.41–6.10
Yellow cards
28%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.243.90safe0.60–2.701.11–3.371.72–6.07safer0.34–2.970.82–3.661.16–6.63
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.683.296.97safe2.24–5.111.73–4.853.97–9.96safer1.85–5.501.31–5.273.16–10.77
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 0.61–2.54 0.36–2.80 | 1.70 0.85–2.55 0.62–2.78 | 3.28 1.45–5.10 0.97–5.58 | 36% 23% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.84 2.98–6.70 2.49–7.19 | 5.66 3.92–7.40 3.45–7.87 | 10.50 6.90–14.11 5.94–15.06 | 34% 54% |
| Total shots | 14.59 10.67–18.52 9.58–19.61 | 14.93 11.37–18.49 10.41–19.45 | 29.53 22.04–37.01 19.99–39.06 | 44% 49% |
| Shots in box | 9.85 6.91–12.79 6.08–13.62 | 10.41 7.73–13.09 6.99–13.83 | 20.26 14.63–25.88 13.07–27.45 | 41% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 3.70 1.82–5.58 1.27–6.13 | 3.97 2.32–5.63 1.83–6.12 | 7.68 4.14–11.21 3.10–12.25 | 39% 15% 47% |
| Corners | 5.37 3.16–7.58 2.58–8.16 | 5.11 3.11–7.11 2.58–7.65 | 10.48 6.27–14.70 5.16–15.80 | 47% 41% |
| Possession % | 52.96 46.17–59.75 44.50–61.42 | 48.24 41.45–55.02 39.78–56.69 | — | 59% 37% |
| Passes | 476 409–543 391–561 | 434 368–501 350–518 | 910 777–1044 741–1080 | 64% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.16 65.13–73.18 63.83–74.48 | 72.88 68.55–77.20 67.24–78.51 | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 11.54 8.70–14.38 7.95–15.13 | 13.18 10.24–16.13 9.49–16.88 | 24.73 18.94–30.51 17.44–32.01 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.12 | 1.59 0.50–2.69 0.21–2.97 | 3.25 1.00–5.51 0.41–6.10 | 40% 23% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.60–2.70 0.34–2.97 | 2.24 1.11–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 3.90 1.72–6.07 1.16–6.63 | 28% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.68 2.24–5.11 1.85–5.50 | 3.29 1.73–4.85 1.31–5.27 | 6.97 3.97–9.96 3.16–10.77 | 48% 15% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+